Arbitrum seasonality: every month and weekday
Going by median return since 2023, Arbitrum's best month has been September (+8.3%, higher in 2 of 4 years) and its worst February (−28.8%, higher in 1 of 3). Across all 43 full months, it finished higher 42% of the time.
A handful of years per month is a small sample. The “by luck” column says how easily a record like that would turn up if the month were no different from any other.
By month
| Month | Years | Higher | Median | Average | Best | Worst | By luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3 | 1 of 3 | −11.2% | −7.7% | +13% (2024) | −25% (2026) | 100% |
| February | 3 | 1 of 3 | −28.8% | −17.6% | +10% (2024) | −34% (2025) | 100% |
| March | 3 | 0 of 3 | −14.6% | −14.5% | −7% (2026) | −22% (2025) | 27% |
| April | 4 | 1 of 4 | −1.1% | −1.8% | +33% (2026) | −38% (2024) | 64% |
| May | 4 | 2 of 4 | −5.5% | −4.4% | +9% (2024) | −16% (2026) | 100% |
| June | 4 | 2 of 4 | −13.2% | −13.3% | +2% (2025) | −28% (2024) | 100% |
| July | 4 | 3 of 4 | +1.6% | +0.1% | +15% (2025) | −18% (2024) | 32% |
| August | 4 | 2 of 4 | +1.6% | +5.2% | +40% (2026) | −22% (2024) | 100% |
| September | 4 | 2 of 4 | +8.3% | +21.7% | +85% (2026) | −15% (2025) | 100% |
| October | 4 | 1 of 4 | −16.0% | −14.5% | +4% (2023) | −30% (2025) | 64% |
| November | 3 | 2 of 3 | +6.5% | +20.7% | +84% (2024) | −29% (2025) | 58% |
| December | 3 | 1 of 3 | −11.3% | +6.1% | +55% (2023) | −26% (2024) | 100% |
By weekday
| Day (UTC) | Days | Higher | Median daily move | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 190 | 48% | −0.17% | −0.28% |
| Tuesday | 190 | 48% | −0.56% | −0.24% |
| Wednesday | 190 | 51% | +0.09% | +0.35% |
| Thursday | 190 | 39% | −1.30% | −0.48% |
| Friday | 191 | 54% | +0.48% | +0.48% |
| Saturday | 191 | 49% | −0.07% | +0.21% |
| Sunday | 190 | 47% | −0.21% | −0.37% |
A month's return runs from the open of its first daily candle to the close of its last (UTC). Only full months are counted. Daily moves are close to close.