Arbitrum · ARB/USDT · daily
What happens to Arbitrum after extreme buy pressure?
Since 2023, Arbitrum has shown extreme buy pressure 31 times. In the 31 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 55% of the time, with a median move of +0.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARB is −1.7%.
Weak evidence46
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 71% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 31 | 52% | +0.6% | −2.9% to +2.9% | −0.2% | +0.8% | 56% | 20 |
| 3 days | 31 | 52% | +0.7% | −2.4% to +8.2% | −0.9% | +1.5% | 61% | 20 |
| 7 days | 31 | 55% | +0.9% | −5.1% to +8.4% | −1.7% | +2.7% | 71% | 46 |
| 14 days | 31 | 55% | +4.4% | −9.2% to +13.2% | −4.1% | +8.4% | 29% | 52 |
| 30 days | 31 | 52% | +3.0% | −28.1% to +23.3% | −6.4% | +9.4% | 59% | 49 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 27%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 18 the gap over 7 days was +1.9%, and in the later 13 it was +2.8%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep 2026 | $0.1337 | +13.5% | +68.9% | +36.1% |
| 7 Sep 2026 | $0.1694 | −2.6% | −21.1% | +9.7% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | $0.09090 | +8.0% | +1.1% | +126.7% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | $0.08160 | +1.3% | −4.7% | +35.3% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | $0.1245 | +0.6% | −3.6% | −16.1% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | $0.1136 | −3.0% | +11.8% | +16.2% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | $0.09800 | −1.0% | +2.1% | −1.7% |
| 17 Jan 2026 | $0.2166 | −4.8% | −18.6% | −46.8% |
| 9 Jan 2026 | $0.2075 | −0.3% | +1.1% | −43.9% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | $0.2011 | +3.9% | +3.9% | −30.3% |
| 18 Sep 2025 | $0.5241 | −6.7% | −22.2% | −41.0% |
| 2 Aug 2025 | $0.3688 | +3.8% | +28.4% | +29.4% |
The 12 most recent. All 31 are in the open data file.
The rule
Share of volume from market buys in the top 3% of the previous 180 days. Market buy orders taking an unusually large share of volume means buyers are paying up to get in rather than waiting.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reserve Rights | 52 | 54% | +3.6% | +4.9% | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 59 | 36% | −4.6% | −3.3% | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 59 | 54% | +2.1% | +2.3% | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 55 | 56% | +2.9% | +4.2% | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 40 | 57% | +2.5% | +3.7% | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 79 | 39% | −0.8% | −1.4% | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 55 | 29% | −3.4% | −2.4% | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 45 | 53% | +0.9% | +1.8% | Weak evidence |
Extreme buy pressure across all 94 coins
Other Arbitrum signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals