What happens to Arbitrum after a 30% rise in 7 days?

Since 2023, Arbitrum has shown a 30% rise in 7 days 11 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 60% of the time, with a median move of +4.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARB is −1.7%.

No better than chance28

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 53% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 202311last on 18 Sep 2026

Higher after 7 days60%ordinary: 43%

Median 7-day move+4.9%ordinary: −1.7%

Could be luck53%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−22% / +27%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary ARB drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	10	40%	−2.5%	−6.6% to +3.2%	−0.2%	−2.4%	28%	29
3 days	10	30%	−2.2%	−5.5% to +1.3%	−0.9%	−1.3%	83%	19
7 days	10	60%	+4.9%	−9.8% to +16.2%	−1.7%	+6.6%	53%	28
14 days	10	60%	+23.1%	−10.0% to +36.7%	−4.1%	+27.1%	6.3%	67
30 days	10	50%	+6.0%	−10.0% to +42.1%	−6.4%	+12.4%	70%	27

“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 11%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−11.7%ordinary ARB: −8.5%

1 case in 4 dipped past−16.8%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way60%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+18.3%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+4.6%ordinary: −2.0%

Ahead after costs60%ordinary: 42%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
18 Sep 2026	$0.2212	−6.8%	+2.5%	−15.5%
2 Sep 2026	$0.1241	+13.6%	+20.5%	+57.9%
21 Aug 2026	$0.09820	+0.8%	−10.6%	+121.8%
13 Aug 2025	$0.5712	−9.6%	−10.1%	−4.1%
29 Jun 2025	$0.3671	−5.9%	−8.9%	+15.8%
10 May 2025	$0.4842	−6.8%	−22.4%	−23.8%
21 Nov 2024	$0.7785	+3.9%	+17.3%	−3.7%
10 Nov 2024	$0.6287	+6.8%	+7.2%	+49.2%
4 Jan 2024	$2.00	−2.6%	+12.7%	−11.9%
27 Dec 2023	$1.51	−2.5%	+27.1%	+20.7%
14 Apr 2023	$1.70	open	open	open

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 30% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
DODO	24	29%	−12.9%	−12.0%	Strong evidence · leans down
Stellar	28	61%	+5.7%	+6.9%	Strong evidence · leans up
Audius	33	33%	−8.2%	−7.0%	Strong evidence · leans down
Conflux	29	34%	−10.3%	−8.8%	Strong evidence · leans down
Tellor	42	40%	−8.1%	−7.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
AVA (Travala)	22	32%	−9.1%	−8.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Livepeer	27	33%	−9.0%	−7.2%	Some evidence · leans down
Horizen	35	37%	−7.3%	−6.6%	Some evidence · leans down

30% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Arbitrum signals

7% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 52 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 56 cases 5% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 80 cases 7% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 56 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 30 cases 20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 20 cases

Full Arbitrum record

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