After a 15% rise in a day: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 2,357 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence14 of 912 lean up · 12 lean down
No better than chance41 of 91coins
Scored cases2,357since 2017
The rule. Close at least 15% above the close one day earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ConstitutionDAO | 36 | 33% | −10.7% | −1.3% | −9.3% | 4.0% | 98 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 36 | 28% | −10.0% | −1.6% | −8.5% | 6.8% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 21 | 29% | −13.0% | −1.5% | −11.5% | 4.6% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Gitcoin | 23 | 26% | −13.4% | −1.2% | −12.3% | 5.1% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 19 | 11% | −15.0% | −0.9% | −14.1% | 1.9% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Audius | 32 | 31% | −8.2% | −1.2% | −7.0% | 8.5% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Prom | 17 | 35% | −13.2% | −0.2% | −13.0% | 1.9% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 17 | 12% | −18.4% | −0.5% | −17.9% | 1.9% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 PancakeSwap | 16 | 69% | +13.4% | −0.8% | +14.2% | 2.8% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 JUST | 16 | 13% | −14.9% | +0.6% | −15.5% | 1.9% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Neo | 30 | 33% | −7.8% | −0.6% | −7.2% | 8.5% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Livepeer | 33 | 30% | −9.0% | −1.7% | −7.2% | 12% | 81 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Axie Infinity | 36 | 56% | +8.2% | −1.2% | +9.4% | 2.8% | 73 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin Cash | 22 | 36% | −8.4% | −0.2% | −8.2% | 4.6% | 66 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Fetch.ai | 54 | 56% | +4.3% | −1.2% | +5.6% | 25% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 29 | 28% | −7.4% | −0.8% | −6.6% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 23 | 30% | −10.2% | −1.9% | −8.2% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 35 | 54% | +5.1% | +0.1% | +5.0% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 40 | 40% | −4.4% | −0.7% | −3.7% | 55% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 32 | 41% | −4.4% | −1.0% | −3.4% | 38% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 19 | 37% | −3.3% | +0.7% | −4.0% | 26% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 26 | 31% | −9.9% | −3.0% | −6.9% | 28% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 46 | 39% | −3.3% | −0.4% | −2.9% | 71% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 26 | 42% | −6.6% | −1.3% | −5.3% | 30% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 18 | 67% | +6.3% | +0.3% | +6.0% | 28% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 24 | 25% | −6.1% | −1.5% | −4.6% | 34% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 41 | 51% | +1.8% | −0.5% | +2.3% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 14 | 43% | −8.3% | −1.6% | −6.7% | 25% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 33 | 58% | +2.9% | −0.6% | +3.5% | 68% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 21 | 67% | +4.7% | −1.7% | +6.4% | 41% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 39 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 90% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 25 | 40% | −5.6% | −1.0% | −4.5% | 52% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 24 | 38% | −4.8% | −0.6% | −4.2% | 50% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 23 | 61% | +3.9% | −0.7% | +4.6% | 52% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 28 | 36% | −3.4% | −1.0% | −2.4% | 62% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 14 | 57% | +3.3% | −1.3% | +4.6% | 45% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 28 | 54% | +2.1% | −0.6% | +2.6% | 70% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 23 | 39% | −5.1% | −1.3% | −3.8% | 61% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 14 | 71% | +7.2% | −0.3% | +7.4% | 48% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 30 | 43% | −1.9% | −0.8% | −1.1% | 86% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 25 | 56% | +0.9% | −1.1% | +2.0% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 13 | 69% | +4.0% | −2.5% | +6.5% | 56% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 11 | 64% | +3.7% | −1.7% | +5.4% | 61% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 18 | 28% | −5.0% | −2.2% | −2.8% | 60% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 26 | 31% | −3.7% | −1.8% | −1.9% | 86% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 24 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.1% | +1.3% | 90% | 40 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 21 | 29% | −4.7% | −2.7% | −2.0% | 88% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 20 | 50% | +0.2% | −2.2% | +2.4% | 81% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 17 | 35% | −3.0% | −0.4% | −2.5% | 80% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 11 | 45% | −5.5% | −1.6% | −3.9% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 40 | 53% | +4.2% | −0.6% | +4.8% | 34% | 29 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 35 | 46% | −6.6% | −1.3% | −5.4% | 37% | 27 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 43 | 56% | +3.5% | −0.3% | +3.8% | 53% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 50 | 38% | −4.4% | −1.3% | −3.0% | 62% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 19 | 42% | −7.6% | −1.0% | −6.6% | 32% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 45 | 40% | −3.1% | −1.3% | −1.8% | 86% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 34 | 41% | −3.2% | −0.9% | −2.3% | 73% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 30 | 40% | −5.5% | −1.2% | −4.3% | 55% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 24 | 54% | +3.0% | −1.1% | +4.0% | 53% | 21 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 32 | 59% | +1.7% | −0.8% | +2.6% | 69% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 12 | 25% | −11.3% | −3.4% | −7.8% | 39% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 25 | 48% | −6.3% | −1.4% | −4.8% | 57% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 26 | 42% | −3.7% | −0.5% | −3.2% | 60% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 29 | 41% | −4.2% | −0.9% | −3.3% | 67% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 42 | 45% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 29 | 41% | −2.1% | −0.3% | −1.9% | 79% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 33 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.7% | +1.5% | 87% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 30 | 53% | +0.5% | −0.8% | +1.4% | 87% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 33 | 45% | −1.7% | −1.2% | −0.5% | 96% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 24 | 54% | +2.3% | −0.3% | +2.6% | 78% | 17 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 20 | 50% | +3.1% | +0.5% | +2.6% | 64% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 25 | 40% | −2.4% | +0.1% | −2.5% | 78% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 30 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.2% | +1.1% | 93% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 10 | 30% | −1.9% | −0.5% | −1.4% | 95% | 17 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 32 | 47% | −0.9% | −1.3% | +0.5% | 96% | 17 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 22 | 55% | +2.2% | −0.8% | +3.0% | 70% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 10 | 50% | −0.9% | −1.5% | +0.6% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 32 | 47% | −1.3% | −1.4% | +0.1% | 100% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 22 | 45% | −2.1% | −0.4% | −1.7% | 74% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 30 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.4% | +0.2% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 25 | 44% | −2.7% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 93% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 27 | 44% | −0.3% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 18 | 50% | +0.5% | −2.7% | +3.1% | 80% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 19 | 53% | +1.3% | −1.1% | +2.4% | 81% | 14 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 17 | 35% | −3.7% | −1.7% | −2.0% | 87% | 13 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 15 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.9% | +2.9% | 78% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 22 | 45% | −0.5% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 17 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.5% | +1.8% | 90% | 12 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 17 | 41% | −3.4% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 90% | 12 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 15 | 47% | −1.9% | −1.3% | −0.6% | 97% | 9 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 15 | 47% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 5 | 100% | +6.7% | +0.5% | +6.2% | 9.4% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 7 | 29% | −21.1% | −2.0% | −19.2% | 0.2% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 1 | 0% | −16.1% | −0.3% | – | – | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.