Aave · AAVE/USDT · daily
What happens to Aave after a 15% rise in a day?
Since 2020, Aave has shown a 15% rise in a day 29 times. In the 27 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 44% of the time, with a median move of −0.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AAVE is −0.1%.
No better than chance14
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 99% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 27 | 67% | +3.5% | −2.3% to +7.6% | −0.1% | +3.6% | 1.5% | 94 |
| 3 days | 27 | 67% | +3.0% | −3.9% to +9.1% | −0.1% | +3.1% | 34% | 48 |
| 7 days | 27 | 44% | −0.3% | −8.8% to +11.0% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 99% | 14 |
| 14 days | 27 | 52% | +0.6% | −13.1% to +18.1% | −0.7% | +1.3% | 96% | 15 |
| 30 days | 27 | 48% | −4.5% | −21.4% to +24.5% | −2.1% | −2.4% | 96% | 16 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AAVE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 92%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 16 the gap over 7 days was +0.1%, and in the later 11 it was −0.3%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | $122.7 | +3.1% | −0.4% | +12.1% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | $95.19 | −1.2% | −8.0% | +6.6% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | $345.6 | +3.5% | −7.6% | −14.9% |
| 8 May 2025 | $206.3 | +2.4% | +8.5% | +24.8% |
| 23 Dec 2024 | $383.5 | −2.2% | −16.0% | −9.6% |
| 12 Dec 2024 | $367.1 | +2.9% | −14.2% | −21.8% |
| 27 Nov 2024 | $210.5 | −4.9% | +21.8% | +53.9% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | $173.7 | +5.6% | −0.3% | +62.2% |
| 6 Mar 2024 | $127.5 | +5.0% | +11.9% | −10.9% |
| 25 Jun 2023 | $68.76 | −8.1% | +2.8% | +1.9% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | $68.00 | −5.9% | −14.0% | −9.7% |
| 27 Jul 2022 | $94.70 | +6.1% | +0.2% | −12.6% |
The 12 most recent. All 29 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% above the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ConstitutionDAO | 36 | 33% | −10.7% | −9.3% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 36 | 28% | −10.0% | −8.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 21 | 29% | −13.0% | −11.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Gitcoin | 23 | 26% | −13.4% | −12.3% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Audius | 32 | 31% | −8.2% | −7.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Neo | 30 | 33% | −7.8% | −7.2% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Livepeer | 33 | 30% | −9.0% | −7.2% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Axie Infinity | 36 | 56% | +8.2% | +9.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
15% rise in a day across all 94 coins
Other Aave signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals