Polkadot · DOT/USDT · daily
What happens to Polkadot after a 15% rise in a day?
Since 2020, Polkadot has shown a 15% rise in a day 21 times. In the 19 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 42% of the time, with a median move of −7.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for DOT is −1.0%.
No better than chance23
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 32% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 19 | 42% | −0.8% | −5.6% to +4.7% | −0.1% | −0.6% | 75% | 13 |
| 3 days | 19 | 53% | +0.1% | −5.5% to +3.4% | −0.4% | +0.5% | 92% | 36 |
| 7 days | 19 | 42% | −7.6% | −13.3% to +5.8% | −1.0% | −6.6% | 32% | 23 |
| 14 days | 19 | 32% | −6.8% | −17.2% to +10.5% | −2.1% | −4.6% | 71% | 42 |
| 30 days | 19 | 26% | −17.9% | −30.6% to +0.7% | −5.1% | −12.8% | 45% | 48 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of DOT over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 2.8%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 11 the gap over 7 days was +1.0%, and in the later 8 it was −7.4%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sep 2026 | $1.25 | −9.9% | −24.2% | −12.5% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | $1.66 | −3.2% | −7.3% | −22.3% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | $3.25 | −0.1% | −13.5% | −35.6% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | $8.52 | +3.6% | +5.1% | −13.3% |
| 21 Dec 2023 | $8.42 | −5.5% | +0.1% | −17.9% |
| 17 Feb 2023 | $7.28 | −0.8% | −9.2% | −11.4% |
| 15 Jun 2022 | $8.49 | −16.0% | −13.0% | −20.0% |
| 13 May 2022 | $10.46 | +8.0% | −7.6% | −29.2% |
| 1 Nov 2021 | $49.98 | +3.4% | +6.8% | −26.5% |
| 13 Oct 2021 | $41.69 | −2.4% | +6.5% | +10.1% |
| 22 Sep 2021 | $31.60 | +5.7% | −13.7% | +37.7% |
| 31 Aug 2021 | $31.35 | +5.8% | −10.8% | −8.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 21 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% above the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ConstitutionDAO | 36 | 33% | −10.7% | −9.3% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 36 | 28% | −10.0% | −8.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 21 | 29% | −13.0% | −11.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Gitcoin | 23 | 26% | −13.4% | −12.3% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Audius | 32 | 31% | −8.2% | −7.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Neo | 30 | 33% | −7.8% | −7.2% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Livepeer | 33 | 30% | −9.0% | −7.2% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Axie Infinity | 36 | 56% | +8.2% | +9.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
15% rise in a day across all 94 coins
Other Polkadot signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals