What happens to Request after a 15% rise in a day?

Since 2021, Request has shown a 15% rise in a day 18 times. In the 17 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 12% of the time, with a median move of −18.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for REQ is −0.5%.

Strong evidence · leans down89

Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 1.9% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is downward.

Cases since 202118last on 25 Jul 2026

Higher after 7 days12%ordinary: 47%

Median 7-day move−18.4%ordinary: −0.5%

Could be luck1.9%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−34% / +8%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary REQ drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 18 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	17	12%	−8.7%	−12.9% to −2.9%	−0.1%	−8.7%	0.3%	89
3 days	17	6%	−15.2%	−20.7% to −12.9%	−0.2%	−15.0%	0.7%	89
7 days	17	12%	−18.4%	−26.7% to −7.4%	−0.5%	−17.9%	1.9%	89
14 days	17	6%	−16.0%	−25.9% to −9.9%	−1.1%	−14.9%	5.5%	88
30 days	17	24%	−24.8%	−33.3% to −4.7%	−3.0%	−21.8%	2.0%	89

“Ordinary median” is the median move of REQ over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: under 0.1%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−22.8%ordinary REQ: −5.9%

1 case in 4 dipped past−29.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way94%ordinary: 27%

Typical best point+23.8%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−18.7%ordinary: −0.8%

Ahead after costs12%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 10 the gap over 7 days was −7.8%, and in the later 7 it was −24.5%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
25 Jul 2026	$0.06200	−12.3%	−18.4%	−11.1%
26 May 2026	$0.08440	−15.6%	−27.6%	−37.1%
18 Apr 2026	$0.09970	−13.9%	−25.0%	−32.8%
13 Dec 2024	$0.1585	−12.9%	−28.6%	−25.0%
21 May 2024	$0.1536	−7.9%	−6.6%	−28.8%
26 Mar 2024	$0.2098	−15.1%	−26.7%	−33.3%
8 Mar 2024	$0.1546	−2.9%	−9.0%	+6.9%
9 Feb 2024	$0.1023	+28.2%	+7.8%	+37.8%
10 Oct 2023	$0.09690	+4.2%	−29.5%	−18.5%
17 Nov 2022	$0.09500	−8.7%	−7.4%	−4.7%
10 Nov 2022	$0.08850	−2.0%	+7.3%	+7.0%
15 Oct 2022	$0.1391	−16.4%	−22.9%	−41.8%

The 12 most recent. All 18 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 15% above the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
ConstitutionDAO	36	33%	−10.7%	−9.3%	Strong evidence · leans down
Conflux	36	28%	−10.0%	−8.5%	Strong evidence · leans down
Phala Network	21	29%	−13.0%	−11.5%	Strong evidence · leans down
Gitcoin	23	26%	−13.4%	−12.3%	Strong evidence · leans down
Audius	32	31%	−8.2%	−7.0%	Strong evidence · leans down
Neo	30	33%	−7.8%	−7.2%	Strong evidence · leans down
Livepeer	33	30%	−9.0%	−7.2%	Strong evidence · leans down
Axie Infinity	36	56%	+8.2%	+9.4%	Strong evidence · leans up

15% rise in a day across all 94 coins

Other Request signals

10% rise in 3 daysStrong evidence · 58 cases 10% jump in a dayStrong evidence · 30 cases 10% drop in a dayStrong evidence · 22 cases 20% rise in 7 daysStrong evidence · 21 cases 20% rise in 3 daysStrong evidence · 20 cases 7% rise in a dayStrong evidence · 49 cases

Full Request record

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