What happens to Nexo after a 15% rise in a day?

Since 2022, Nexo has shown a 15% rise in a day 1 time. In the 1 case old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 0% of the time, with a median move of −16.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for NEXO is −0.3%.

Too few cases

With 1 completed case there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20221last on 10 Nov 2022

Higher after 7 days0%ordinary: 48%

Median 7-day move−16.1%ordinary: −0.3%

Could be luck–allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−16% / −16%over 7 days

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	1	0%	−16.6%	−16.6% to −16.6%	0.0%	–	–
3 days	1	0%	−18.5%	−18.5% to −18.5%	0.0%	–	–
7 days	1	0%	−16.1%	−16.1% to −16.1%	−0.3%	–	–
14 days	1	0%	−17.4%	−17.4% to −17.4%	−0.9%	–	–
30 days	1	0%	−20.6%	−20.6% to −20.6%	−1.7%	–	–

“Ordinary median” is the median move of NEXO over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period.

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−23.6%ordinary NEXO: −5.0%

1 case in 4 dipped past−23.6%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way100%ordinary: 20%

Typical best point+0.1%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−16.4%ordinary: −0.6%

Ahead after costs0%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
10 Nov 2022	$0.8380	−16.6%	−16.1%	−20.6%

The 12 most recent. All 1 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 15% above the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
ConstitutionDAO	36	33%	−10.7%	−9.3%	Strong evidence · leans down
Conflux	36	28%	−10.0%	−8.5%	Strong evidence · leans down
Phala Network	21	29%	−13.0%	−11.5%	Strong evidence · leans down
Gitcoin	23	26%	−13.4%	−12.3%	Strong evidence · leans down
Audius	32	31%	−8.2%	−7.0%	Strong evidence · leans down
Neo	30	33%	−7.8%	−7.2%	Strong evidence · leans down
Livepeer	33	30%	−9.0%	−7.2%	Strong evidence · leans down
Axie Infinity	36	56%	+8.2%	+9.4%	Strong evidence · leans up

15% rise in a day across all 94 coins

Other Nexo signals

Extreme sell pressureWeak evidence · 39 cases 7% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 25 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 22 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 5% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 5% drop in a dayNo better than chance · 39 cases

Full Nexo record

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