What happens to Aptos after a 15% rise in a day?

Since 2022, Aptos has shown a 15% rise in a day 12 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of −0.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for APT is −1.5%.

No better than chance16

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 98% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 202212last on 18 Sep 2026

Higher after 7 days50%ordinary: 45%

Median 7-day move−0.9%ordinary: −1.5%

Could be luck98%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−17% / +62%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary APT drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	10	40%	−1.8%	−5.0% to +3.9%	−0.3%	−1.5%	52%	24
3 days	10	50%	+1.2%	−4.0% to +7.8%	−0.6%	+1.7%	78%	21
7 days	10	50%	−0.9%	−10.3% to +17.1%	−1.5%	+0.6%	98%	16
14 days	10	50%	+0.1%	−11.9% to +15.5%	−2.7%	+2.9%	92%	19
30 days	10	60%	+5.4%	−5.4% to +35.8%	−5.7%	+11.1%	67%	27

“Ordinary median” is the median move of APT over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 89%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−12.1%ordinary APT: −8.8%

1 case in 4 dipped past−16.5%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way60%ordinary: 43%

Typical best point+7.5%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−1.2%ordinary: −1.8%

Ahead after costs50%ordinary: 44%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
18 Sep 2026	$0.7320	−1.0%	+19.2%	+7.0%
23 Mar 2026	$1.07	+4.3%	−16.7%	−11.6%
25 Feb 2026	$1.01	−4.0%	+0.4%	−2.9%
7 Nov 2025	$3.17	−2.6%	−7.7%	−46.0%
11 Nov 2024	$13.72	−9.9%	−12.2%	−6.2%
12 Oct 2024	$9.93	+2.6%	−2.2%	+38.2%
28 Feb 2024	$12.37	−5.3%	+10.7%	+39.2%
12 Dec 2023	$9.11	−5.8%	−11.2%	+3.7%
20 Jan 2023	$10.95	+7.4%	+62.2%	+28.6%
9 Jan 2023	$5.21	+5.3%	+56.0%	+189.3%
10 Nov 2022	$5.15	open	open	open
22 Oct 2022	$8.96	open	open	open

The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 15% above the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
ConstitutionDAO	36	33%	−10.7%	−9.3%	Strong evidence · leans down
Conflux	36	28%	−10.0%	−8.5%	Strong evidence · leans down
Phala Network	21	29%	−13.0%	−11.5%	Strong evidence · leans down
Gitcoin	23	26%	−13.4%	−12.3%	Strong evidence · leans down
Audius	32	31%	−8.2%	−7.0%	Strong evidence · leans down
Neo	30	33%	−7.8%	−7.2%	Strong evidence · leans down
Livepeer	33	30%	−9.0%	−7.2%	Strong evidence · leans down
Axie Infinity	36	56%	+8.2%	+9.4%	Strong evidence · leans up

15% rise in a day across all 94 coins

Other Aptos signals

Five red days in a rowSome evidence · 24 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 34 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 58 cases 5% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 93 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 55 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 35 cases

Full Aptos record

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