Algorand · ALGO/USDT · daily
What happens to Algorand after a 15% rise in a day?
Since 2019, Algorand has shown a 15% rise in a day 25 times. In the 25 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 40% of the time, with a median move of −5.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ALGO is −1.0%.
Weak evidence46
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 52% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 25 | 36% | −2.0% | −3.7% to +2.4% | 0.0% | −2.0% | 19% | 60 |
| 3 days | 25 | 52% | +0.1% | −5.1% to +6.0% | −0.4% | +0.6% | 89% | 14 |
| 7 days | 25 | 40% | −5.6% | −12.1% to +10.3% | −1.0% | −4.5% | 52% | 46 |
| 14 days | 25 | 36% | −3.7% | −16.2% to +8.4% | −1.6% | −2.0% | 93% | 40 |
| 30 days | 25 | 36% | −15.8% | −26.5% to +2.9% | −4.3% | −11.5% | 52% | 48 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ALGO over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 11%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 15 the gap over 7 days was −6.6%, and in the later 10 it was −1.3%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | $0.1232 | −2.2% | −10.6% | −8.0% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | $0.1810 | −1.8% | −11.1% | −26.5% |
| 13 Jul 2025 | $0.2638 | +6.0% | +10.3% | +2.9% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | $0.1802 | −2.0% | +0.6% | +29.3% |
| 15 Jan 2025 | $0.4446 | +4.4% | −8.8% | −33.3% |
| 29 Nov 2024 | $0.4417 | +0.5% | +12.9% | −26.4% |
| 22 Nov 2024 | $0.2586 | +13.6% | +70.8% | +34.4% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | $0.1856 | +5.9% | +39.3% | +132.9% |
| 13 Jul 2023 | $0.1219 | −7.1% | −5.6% | −5.1% |
| 29 Mar 2023 | $0.2353 | −4.5% | −5.3% | −22.0% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | $0.3209 | −5.6% | −16.6% | −29.3% |
| 22 Sep 2021 | $1.85 | +8.5% | −12.9% | +0.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 25 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% above the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ConstitutionDAO | 36 | 33% | −10.7% | −9.3% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 36 | 28% | −10.0% | −8.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 21 | 29% | −13.0% | −11.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Gitcoin | 23 | 26% | −13.4% | −12.3% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Audius | 32 | 31% | −8.2% | −7.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Neo | 30 | 33% | −7.8% | −7.2% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Livepeer | 33 | 30% | −9.0% | −7.2% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Axie Infinity | 36 | 56% | +8.2% | +9.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
15% rise in a day across all 94 coins
Other Algorand signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals