After a 15% drop in a day: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 1,381 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence4 of 743 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance46 of 74coins
Scored cases1,381since 2017
The rule. Close at least 15% below the close one day earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cosmos | 14 | 79% | +9.0% | −0.9% | +9.9% | 15% | 66 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Stacks | 15 | 73% | +10.7% | −0.6% | +11.4% | 17% | 64 | Some evidence · leans up |
 TRON | 14 | 71% | +8.1% | +0.7% | +7.4% | 5.1% | 62 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Raydium | 10 | 10% | −16.4% | −0.9% | −15.5% | 11% | 58 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +5.8% | +0.1% | +5.7% | 42% | 47 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 13 | 69% | +6.7% | −2.7% | +9.4% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 31 | 58% | +3.2% | −0.4% | +3.7% | 69% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 14 | 71% | +4.2% | −1.1% | +5.3% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 13 | 15% | −8.7% | −1.3% | −7.4% | 40% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 14 | 21% | −8.1% | −1.5% | −6.6% | 42% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 11 | 27% | −7.0% | −0.5% | −6.5% | 31% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 27 | 37% | −4.9% | −1.3% | −3.6% | 73% | 44 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 13 | 31% | −8.5% | −1.7% | −6.7% | 48% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 16 | 56% | +1.9% | −3.0% | +4.8% | 63% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 15 | 60% | +3.1% | −1.8% | +4.8% | 63% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 12 | 33% | −4.9% | −0.9% | −4.1% | 60% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 13 | 69% | +3.9% | −0.4% | +4.4% | 66% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 13 | 62% | +3.0% | −1.3% | +4.3% | 68% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 14 | 29% | −5.7% | −0.6% | −5.1% | 69% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 21 | 52% | +1.6% | −1.3% | +2.9% | 79% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 20 | 45% | −3.2% | −0.6% | −2.6% | 80% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 14 | 64% | +2.7% | −0.8% | +3.6% | 70% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 19 | 42% | −2.6% | −0.1% | −2.5% | 86% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 17 | 53% | +0.9% | −1.2% | +2.1% | 82% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 13 | 62% | +2.2% | −1.1% | +3.3% | 77% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 12 | 58% | +2.3% | −0.2% | +2.5% | 79% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 16 | 31% | −3.9% | −1.4% | −2.5% | 86% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 14 | 57% | +1.2% | −0.7% | +1.9% | 89% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 12 | 33% | −3.3% | −1.4% | −1.8% | 92% | 34 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 14 | 64% | +7.3% | +0.6% | +6.7% | 19% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 13 | 69% | +0.7% | −0.1% | +0.8% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 14 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.7% | +0.4% | 99% | 33 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 10 | 60% | +3.4% | −1.5% | +4.9% | 56% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 10 | 60% | +3.4% | −0.2% | +3.6% | 72% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 24 | 67% | +4.7% | −0.6% | +5.3% | 38% | 23 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 26 | 62% | +3.3% | −1.3% | +4.5% | 56% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 13 | 62% | +7.2% | +0.1% | +7.1% | 45% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 24 | 58% | +3.4% | −0.6% | +4.0% | 53% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 18 | 56% | +3.2% | −1.0% | +4.2% | 48% | 19 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 25 | 36% | −4.4% | −0.8% | −3.6% | 66% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 26 | 42% | −3.4% | −0.6% | −2.8% | 68% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 19 | 53% | +3.2% | −1.7% | +5.0% | 54% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 22 | 41% | −5.5% | −1.2% | −4.3% | 63% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 14 | 50% | −3.5% | −0.2% | −3.3% | 61% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 23 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.6% | +1.7% | 90% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 19 | 37% | −3.9% | −1.3% | −2.6% | 76% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 25 | 48% | −1.7% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 25 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.7% | +0.8% | 97% | 14 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 18 | 44% | −3.9% | −1.3% | −2.6% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 23 | 35% | −2.3% | −1.3% | −1.0% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 25 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.3% | −0.4% | 98% | 13 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 19 | 53% | +0.8% | −0.8% | +1.6% | 89% | 13 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 15 | 47% | −2.4% | −0.8% | −1.6% | 86% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 12 | 58% | +3.5% | −0.1% | +3.5% | 80% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 23 | 48% | −1.5% | −1.2% | −0.3% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 17 | 35% | −3.0% | −1.2% | −1.8% | 90% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 16 | 50% | +0.9% | −1.2% | +2.0% | 90% | 12 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 14 | 36% | −4.6% | −1.9% | −2.7% | 86% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 16 | 44% | −1.6% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 20 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 20 | 50% | −0.5% | −0.8% | +0.3% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 13 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.4% | +1.5% | 86% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 16 | 44% | −0.7% | +0.3% | −1.0% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 17 | 41% | −1.7% | −1.1% | −0.6% | 97% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 15 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.0% | +1.3% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 13 | 46% | −3.4% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 92% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 18 | 44% | −0.8% | −1.2% | +0.4% | 98% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 12 | 67% | +1.5% | −0.3% | +1.8% | 92% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 15 | 47% | −1.4% | −1.0% | −0.4% | 98% | 9 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 13 | 54% | +1.0% | −0.3% | +1.3% | 93% | 9 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 15 | 53% | +0.2% | +0.5% | −0.3% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 15 | 40% | −1.1% | −1.2% | +0.1% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 16 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 12 | 42% | −3.9% | −3.4% | −0.5% | 98% | 7 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 4 | 50% | +13.7% | +0.5% | +13.2% | 1.0% | Too few cases | |
 Polkadot | 8 | 63% | +0.3% | −1.0% | +1.3% | 75% | Too few cases | |
 Uniswap | 9 | 78% | +5.9% | −0.4% | +6.3% | 18% | Too few cases | |
 Aptos | 6 | 50% | +6.4% | −1.5% | +7.9% | 14% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 7 | 57% | +2.5% | −1.7% | +4.3% | 39% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 6 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.5% | +0.5% | 91% | Too few cases | |
 Pepe | 7 | 14% | −8.4% | −1.4% | −6.9% | 27% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 5 | 80% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.4% | 54% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 7 | 57% | +4.2% | −2.7% | +6.9% | 29% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 3 | 0% | −10.4% | −2.2% | −8.2% | 32% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 8 | 63% | +0.8% | −0.3% | +1.1% | 85% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 7 | 43% | −3.5% | −0.5% | −2.9% | 60% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 9 | 44% | −3.4% | −1.6% | −1.8% | 62% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 6 | 50% | −3.8% | −2.0% | −1.8% | 72% | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 7 | 57% | +3.1% | −2.2% | +5.3% | 14% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 9 | 33% | −7.9% | −2.5% | −5.3% | 28% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 2 | 0% | −8.9% | −0.3% | −8.6% | 9.0% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 9 | 44% | −0.4% | −1.9% | +1.5% | 69% | Too few cases | |
 Immutable | 7 | 71% | +2.3% | −1.7% | +3.9% | 48% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 9 | 67% | +1.4% | −1.6% | +3.0% | 43% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.