What happens to Radworks after a 15% drop in a day?

Since 2021, Radworks has shown a 15% drop in a day 12 times. In the 12 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 33% of the time, with a median move of −4.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for RAD is −0.9%.

Weak evidence41

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 60% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 202112last on 1 Feb 2026

Higher after 7 days33%ordinary: 45%

Median 7-day move−4.9%ordinary: −0.9%

Could be luck60%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−25% / +9%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary RAD drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 12 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	12	33%	−3.1%	−9.8% to +1.7%	−0.2%	−2.8%	8.0%	80
3 days	12	42%	−3.6%	−8.2% to +4.7%	−0.4%	−3.2%	37%	44
7 days	12	33%	−4.9%	−10.3% to +1.0%	−0.9%	−4.1%	60%	41
14 days	12	33%	−7.7%	−11.9% to +3.7%	−1.7%	−5.9%	64%	41
30 days	12	33%	−10.9%	−20.9% to +4.6%	−4.3%	−6.6%	82%	14

“Ordinary median” is the median move of RAD over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 16%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−16.8%ordinary RAD: −6.7%

1 case in 4 dipped past−19.3%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way75%ordinary: 34%

Typical best point+11.9%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−5.2%ordinary: −1.2%

Ahead after costs33%ordinary: 44%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was −3.1%, and in the later 5 it was −7.5%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
1 Feb 2026	$0.2620	−1.9%	−8.4%	−12.6%
10 Oct 2025	$0.4830	−2.7%	+5.8%	−10.4%
9 Dec 2024	$1.54	−3.4%	−1.3%	−20.5%
12 Apr 2024	$1.97	−16.0%	−11.8%	−11.5%
3 May 2023	$3.33	+24.9%	−25.4%	−43.7%
18 Dec 2022	$1.67	−8.1%	+0.8%	+2.8%
9 Nov 2022	$1.44	+15.0%	+8.7%	+14.3%
26 May 2022	$2.35	−9.5%	−11.1%	−27.6%
11 May 2022	$1.87	−10.8%	+1.6%	+10.0%
21 Feb 2022	$5.05	+1.1%	−4.0%	−2.5%
21 Jan 2022	$5.68	−10.9%	−10.1%	+24.1%
18 Nov 2021	$12.61	+3.4%	−5.9%	−22.1%

The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 15% below the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Zcash	24	58%	+5.8%	+5.7%	Weak evidence
Tellor	31	58%	+3.2%	+3.7%	Weak evidence
Reserve Rights	27	37%	−4.9%	−3.6%	Weak evidence
ConstitutionDAO	21	52%	+1.6%	+2.9%	Weak evidence
Theta Network	20	45%	−3.2%	−2.6%	Weak evidence
Kava	24	67%	+4.7%	+5.3%	No better than chance
COTI	26	62%	+3.3%	+4.5%	No better than chance
Neo	24	58%	+3.4%	+4.0%	No better than chance

15% drop in a day across all 94 coins

Other Radworks signals

10% rise in 3 daysStrong evidence · 61 cases 10% jump in a dayStrong evidence · 35 cases 7% rise in a dayStrong evidence · 62 cases 20% rise in 7 daysStrong evidence · 26 cases 20% rise in 3 daysStrong evidence · 20 cases 5% rise in a dayStrong evidence · 96 cases

Full Radworks record

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