Uniswap · UNI/USDT · daily
What happens to Uniswap after a 15% drop in a day?
Since 2020, Uniswap has shown a 15% drop in a day 11 times. In the 9 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 78% of the time, with a median move of +5.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for UNI is −0.4%.
Too few cases
With 9 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 9 | 89% | +8.4% | +2.0% to +13.7% | −0.1% | +8.5% | under 0.1% | |
| 3 days | 9 | 67% | +9.5% | −8.3% to +14.4% | −0.2% | +9.7% | 0.5% | |
| 7 days | 9 | 78% | +5.9% | +2.5% to +21.6% | −0.4% | +6.3% | 18% | |
| 14 days | 9 | 78% | +7.8% | +4.4% to +19.2% | −0.9% | +8.7% | 22% | |
| 30 days | 9 | 67% | +6.0% | −12.0% to +19.0% | −1.4% | +7.4% | 50% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of UNI over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 18%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | $3.17 | +12.1% | +2.5% | +19.0% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $5.79 | +1.1% | +5.9% | +13.5% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | $9.18 | +8.4% | −0.6% | −23.0% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $4.90 | +17.8% | +21.6% | +25.9% |
| 9 May 2022 | $5.95 | +2.0% | −15.0% | −14.5% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | $24.32 | −4.8% | +5.6% | +4.9% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | $15.77 | +4.1% | +12.4% | +6.0% |
| 19 May 2021 | $23.17 | +13.7% | +27.0% | −12.0% |
| 21 Jan 2021 | $7.59 | +14.4% | +85.8% | +279.0% |
| 6 Oct 2020 | $2.71 | open | open | open |
| 19 Sep 2020 | $5.72 | open | open | open |
The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% below the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +5.8% | +5.7% | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 31 | 58% | +3.2% | +3.7% | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 27 | 37% | −4.9% | −3.6% | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 21 | 52% | +1.6% | +2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 20 | 45% | −3.2% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 24 | 67% | +4.7% | +5.3% | No better than chance |
 COTI | 26 | 62% | +3.3% | +4.5% | No better than chance |
 Neo | 24 | 58% | +3.4% | +4.0% | No better than chance |
15% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Uniswap signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals