Polymesh · POLYX/USDT · daily
What happens to Polymesh after a 15% drop in a day?
Since 2022, Polymesh has shown a 15% drop in a day 11 times. In the 9 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 67% of the time, with a median move of +1.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for POLYX is −1.6%.
Too few cases
With 9 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 9 | 44% | −2.4% | −2.7% to +0.5% | 0.0% | −2.5% | 10% | |
| 3 days | 9 | 67% | +0.7% | −0.7% to +9.5% | −0.5% | +1.2% | 63% | |
| 7 days | 9 | 67% | +1.4% | −15.3% to +4.3% | −1.6% | +3.0% | 43% | |
| 14 days | 9 | 44% | −3.0% | −12.6% to +5.4% | −3.3% | +0.3% | 95% | |
| 30 days | 9 | 33% | −5.9% | −15.8% to +18.9% | −5.8% | −0.1% | 99% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of POLYX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 43%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | $0.04550 | +1.5% | +0.2% | +18.9% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | $0.06950 | −2.7% | +14.7% | −5.9% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.08290 | +0.5% | +1.4% | −4.8% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | $0.1493 | −2.4% | −21.9% | −13.2% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | $0.3266 | +2.4% | +4.3% | −15.8% |
| 31 Oct 2023 | $0.2478 | −5.2% | −15.3% | −20.4% |
| 21 Oct 2023 | $0.1608 | −4.9% | +70.1% | +28.6% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | $0.1034 | +0.1% | +3.8% | +23.1% |
| 21 Apr 2023 | $0.2230 | −2.5% | −16.5% | −31.7% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | $0.1452 | open | open | open |
| 18 Oct 2022 | $0.2567 | open | open | open |
The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% below the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +5.8% | +5.7% | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 31 | 58% | +3.2% | +3.7% | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 27 | 37% | −4.9% | −3.6% | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 21 | 52% | +1.6% | +2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 20 | 45% | −3.2% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 24 | 67% | +4.7% | +5.3% | No better than chance |
 COTI | 26 | 62% | +3.3% | +4.5% | No better than chance |
 Neo | 24 | 58% | +3.4% | +4.0% | No better than chance |
15% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Polymesh signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals