What happens to Nexo after a 15% drop in a day?

Since 2022, Nexo has shown a 15% drop in a day 3 times. In the 2 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 0% of the time, with a median move of −8.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for NEXO is −0.3%.

Too few cases

With 2 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20223last on 9 Nov 2022

Higher after 7 days0%ordinary: 48%

Median 7-day move−8.9%ordinary: −0.3%

Could be luck9.0%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−12% / −5%over 7 days

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	2	50%	+6.1%	+1.2% to +10.9%	0.0%	+6.1%	1.7%
3 days	2	0%	−7.9%	−11.1% to −4.7%	0.0%	−7.9%	3.2%
7 days	2	0%	−8.9%	−10.7% to −7.2%	−0.3%	−8.6%	9.0%
14 days	2	0%	−8.8%	−11.4% to −6.2%	−0.9%	−7.9%	25%
30 days	2	0%	−14.8%	−18.4% to −11.1%	−1.7%	−13.1%	21%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of NEXO over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 9.0%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−20.3%ordinary NEXO: −5.0%

1 case in 4 dipped past−24.6%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way100%ordinary: 20%

Typical best point+12.5%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−9.2%ordinary: −0.6%

Ahead after costs0%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
9 Nov 2022	$0.7240	+15.7%	−5.4%	−7.5%
13 Jun 2022	$0.7780	−3.6%	−12.5%	−22.1%
11 May 2022	$1.41	open	open	open

The 12 most recent. All 3 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 15% below the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Zcash	24	58%	+5.8%	+5.7%	Weak evidence
Tellor	31	58%	+3.2%	+3.7%	Weak evidence
Reserve Rights	27	37%	−4.9%	−3.6%	Weak evidence
ConstitutionDAO	21	52%	+1.6%	+2.9%	Weak evidence
Theta Network	20	45%	−3.2%	−2.6%	Weak evidence
Kava	24	67%	+4.7%	+5.3%	No better than chance
COTI	26	62%	+3.3%	+4.5%	No better than chance
Neo	24	58%	+3.4%	+4.0%	No better than chance

15% drop in a day across all 94 coins

Other Nexo signals

Extreme sell pressureWeak evidence · 39 cases 7% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 25 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 22 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 5% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 5% drop in a dayNo better than chance · 39 cases

Full Nexo record

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