Raydium · RAY/USDT · daily
What happens to Raydium after a 15% drop in a day?
Since 2021, Raydium has shown a 15% drop in a day 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 10% of the time, with a median move of −16.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for RAY is −0.9%.
Some evidence · leans down58
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 11% of the time, though there are too few cases to split the history and check it twice. The lean is downward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | 30% | −6.9% | −11.3% to −0.2% | −0.3% | −6.6% | 1.6% | 70 |
| 3 days | 10 | 20% | −8.4% | −18.7% to −3.9% | −0.6% | −7.7% | 16% | 48 |
| 7 days | 10 | 10% | −16.4% | −25.3% to −4.6% | −0.9% | −15.5% | 11% | 58 |
| 14 days | 10 | 30% | −11.0% | −32.2% to +3.3% | −2.5% | −8.5% | 69% | 25 |
| 30 days | 10 | 30% | −22.6% | −31.9% to −2.2% | −5.4% | −17.1% | 69% | 27 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of RAY over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.3%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | $0.7620 | −7.7% | −19.7% | −20.6% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $1.99 | −6.0% | −13.1% | −24.5% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | $2.21 | −1.2% | −29.6% | −16.3% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | $2.99 | −15.8% | −26.3% | −33.4% |
| 19 Mar 2024 | $2.13 | +10.5% | −1.6% | −27.4% |
| 2 Nov 2023 | $0.2897 | −12.2% | +7.6% | +55.7% |
| 16 Dec 2022 | $0.1518 | +8.6% | −6.1% | +57.0% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | $0.3595 | −39.5% | −38.1% | −47.5% |
| 9 May 2022 | $1.58 | +0.1% | −22.3% | −44.3% |
| 20 Sep 2021 | $10.06 | −8.8% | −4.1% | +2.5% |
The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% below the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +5.8% | +5.7% | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 31 | 58% | +3.2% | +3.7% | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 27 | 37% | −4.9% | −3.6% | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 21 | 52% | +1.6% | +2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 20 | 45% | −3.2% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 24 | 67% | +4.7% | +5.3% | No better than chance |
 COTI | 26 | 62% | +3.3% | +4.5% | No better than chance |
 Neo | 24 | 58% | +3.4% | +4.0% | No better than chance |
15% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Raydium signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals