Avalanche · AVAX/USDT · daily
What happens to Avalanche after a 15% drop in a day?
Since 2020, Avalanche has shown a 15% drop in a day 15 times. In the 14 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 57% of the time, with a median move of +1.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AVAX is −0.7%.
Weak evidence35
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 89% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | 50% | +1.1% | −4.0% to +7.6% | 0.0% | +1.2% | 60% | 38 |
| 3 days | 14 | 79% | +5.6% | +0.5% to +23.3% | −0.3% | +5.9% | 17% | 63 |
| 7 days | 14 | 57% | +1.2% | −6.9% to +14.0% | −0.7% | +1.9% | 89% | 35 |
| 14 days | 14 | 57% | +4.3% | −12.4% to +16.8% | −1.7% | +6.1% | 76% | 14 |
| 30 days | 14 | 50% | −1.4% | −16.2% to +16.6% | −2.4% | +1.0% | 98% | 8 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AVAX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 57%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 8 the gap over 7 days was +2.0%, and in the later 6 it was +1.2%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | $20.68 | +3.8% | −3.5% | −14.1% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | $20.95 | −4.5% | −22.4% | −14.1% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | $45.02 | −0.9% | +8.8% | −16.9% |
| 13 Nov 2023 | $16.12 | +5.8% | +29.3% | +141.9% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | $11.65 | −0.6% | −0.3% | +14.9% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $12.91 | +19.4% | +1.2% | +4.3% |
| 9 May 2022 | $41.20 | +8.2% | −21.0% | −40.5% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | $66.06 | −9.5% | +1.4% | +17.1% |
| 20 Sep 2021 | $57.33 | +2.9% | +15.7% | +4.1% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | $37.93 | −2.5% | +35.8% | +62.2% |
| 25 Aug 2021 | $46.21 | −10.6% | −8.1% | +56.5% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | $11.20 | −5.6% | +1.1% | −6.9% |
The 12 most recent. All 15 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% below the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +5.8% | +5.7% | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 31 | 58% | +3.2% | +3.7% | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 27 | 37% | −4.9% | −3.6% | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 21 | 52% | +1.6% | +2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 20 | 45% | −3.2% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 24 | 67% | +4.7% | +5.3% | No better than chance |
 COTI | 26 | 62% | +3.3% | +4.5% | No better than chance |
 Neo | 24 | 58% | +3.4% | +4.0% | No better than chance |
15% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Avalanche signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals