Aave · AAVE/USDT · daily
What happens to Aave after a breakdown to a 90-day low?
Since 2020, Aave has shown a breakdown to a 90-day low 14 times. In the 14 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 36% of the time, with a median move of −8.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AAVE is −0.1%.
Weak evidence47
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 29% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | 79% | +3.9% | +0.5% to +5.6% | −0.1% | +3.9% | 4.6% | 87 |
| 3 days | 14 | 36% | −1.3% | −6.6% to +1.5% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 84% | 36 |
| 7 days | 14 | 36% | −8.9% | −11.5% to +2.3% | −0.1% | −8.8% | 29% | 47 |
| 14 days | 14 | 43% | −2.4% | −13.6% to +4.2% | −0.7% | −1.7% | 96% | 34 |
| 30 days | 14 | 64% | +10.4% | −4.8% to +23.5% | −2.1% | +12.5% | 70% | 42 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AAVE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 2.3%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 8 the gap over 7 days was −1.2%, and in the later 6 it was −10.7%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jun 2026 | $71.35 | −12.7% | −9.8% | +24.3% |
| 28 May 2026 | $80.82 | +2.1% | −11.7% | +16.3% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | $138.0 | −6.5% | −17.4% | −17.6% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $224.5 | +4.4% | −8.0% | −5.4% |
| 31 Mar 2025 | $159.6 | +4.0% | −17.3% | +2.9% |
| 13 Mar 2025 | $162.8 | +6.3% | +9.8% | −9.0% |
| 5 Jun 2023 | $59.90 | +3.0% | −10.4% | +24.5% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $58.10 | +17.0% | +0.5% | +5.9% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $59.90 | +3.7% | +2.8% | +33.1% |
| 9 May 2022 | $99.30 | +5.9% | −15.5% | −2.8% |
| 21 Feb 2022 | $128.6 | +4.7% | +13.4% | +21.3% |
| 22 Jan 2022 | $146.9 | +7.8% | +4.8% | −12.5% |
The 12 most recent. All 14 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close below the lowest low of the previous 90 days. A close below three months of lows is a standard trend-following exit, or a short entry.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 23 | 65% | +5.8% | +6.7% | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 31 | 35% | −6.8% | −5.6% | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 22 | 23% | −8.0% | −7.1% | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 21 | 67% | +5.3% | +6.2% | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 33 | 58% | +2.0% | +2.9% | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 24 | 38% | −5.2% | −4.4% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 23 | 57% | +2.4% | +3.4% | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 34 | 21% | −3.4% | −1.1% | Weak evidence |
Breakdown to a 90-day low across all 94 coins
Other Aave signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals