Aave · AAVE/USDT · daily
What happens to Aave after five red days in a row?
Since 2020, Aave has shown five red days in a row 20 times. In the 19 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 63% of the time, with a median move of +2.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AAVE is −0.1%.
No better than chance14
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 85% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 19 | 63% | +0.7% | −1.8% to +3.5% | −0.1% | +0.8% | 74% | 14 |
| 3 days | 19 | 68% | +3.6% | −4.0% to +6.6% | −0.1% | +3.8% | 32% | 46 |
| 7 days | 19 | 63% | +2.4% | −8.7% to +13.1% | −0.1% | +2.5% | 85% | 14 |
| 14 days | 19 | 58% | +1.3% | −6.8% to +16.3% | −0.7% | +2.0% | 94% | 37 |
| 30 days | 18 | 56% | +4.2% | −9.0% to +22.5% | −2.1% | +6.3% | 89% | 39 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AAVE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 49%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 11 the gap over 7 days was +2.5%, and in the later 8 it was −0.3%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | $135.9 | −1.5% | −6.8% | open |
| 13 Aug 2026 | $87.93 | −1.6% | +12.8% | +42.8% |
| 19 Jul 2026 | $89.56 | +0.3% | +13.3% | −2.3% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | $83.21 | +3.6% | +6.1% | +12.7% |
| 21 Mar 2026 | $108.4 | −1.9% | −10.6% | −16.4% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | $255.4 | −2.3% | +13.9% | +23.6% |
| 15 Jun 2025 | $275.0 | +0.1% | −17.1% | +19.1% |
| 26 Jan 2025 | $316.6 | −3.6% | −18.4% | −35.2% |
| 9 Jan 2025 | $281.1 | +1.7% | +10.7% | −15.0% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | $128.3 | +5.9% | +50.8% | +99.9% |
| 25 Oct 2024 | $138.1 | +3.3% | +2.4% | +23.9% |
| 2 Oct 2024 | $139.1 | +3.3% | +0.2% | +1.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 20 are in the open data file.
The rule
Fifth consecutive daily close below the open. Five losing days in a row tempts traders to bet on a bounce.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ConstitutionDAO | 20 | 65% | +10.6% | +11.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Aptos | 24 | 58% | +5.9% | +7.4% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Dogecoin | 29 | 55% | +5.3% | +6.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 NEAR Protocol | 32 | 59% | +4.9% | +5.5% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 36 | 61% | +4.2% | +4.1% | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 43 | 58% | +1.3% | +2.6% | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 38 | 34% | −3.2% | −2.4% | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 31 | 61% | +2.6% | +4.3% | Weak evidence |
Five red days in a row across all 94 coins
Other Aave signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals