Aave · AAVE/USDT · daily
What happens to Aave after a volume spike on a red day?
Since 2020, Aave has shown a volume spike on a red day 15 times. In the 15 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 27% of the time, with a median move of −3.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AAVE is −0.1%.
Weak evidence38
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 82% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 15 | 47% | −0.7% | −4.3% to +3.0% | −0.1% | −0.7% | 79% | 11 |
| 3 days | 15 | 40% | −1.0% | −4.7% to +2.9% | −0.1% | −0.8% | 90% | 10 |
| 7 days | 15 | 27% | −3.1% | −8.1% to 0.0% | −0.1% | −3.1% | 82% | 38 |
| 14 days | 15 | 47% | −0.1% | −9.8% to +8.1% | −0.7% | +0.5% | 99% | 8 |
| 30 days | 15 | 47% | −5.3% | −20.6% to +7.6% | −2.1% | −3.2% | 96% | 10 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AAVE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 44%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 9 the gap over 7 days was −0.2%, and in the later 6 it was −7.4%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2026 | $132.3 | −4.3% | −6.2% | +5.0% |
| 18 Apr 2026 | $101.2 | −10.7% | −6.9% | −11.6% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | $129.1 | −3.7% | −11.7% | −5.3% |
| 22 Dec 2025 | $150.6 | +0.2% | −0.7% | +5.9% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $224.5 | +4.4% | −8.0% | −5.4% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | $110.3 | −4.3% | −12.7% | +9.4% |
| 24 Oct 2023 | $83.51 | +3.1% | −2.5% | +15.0% |
| 26 Jun 2023 | $63.17 | +2.8% | +15.5% | +14.0% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | $52.70 | −0.9% | −3.1% | +31.5% |
| 18 Jan 2023 | $81.90 | −0.7% | +4.6% | +5.5% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | $72.20 | −19.5% | −15.5% | −13.0% |
| 25 Oct 2022 | $81.90 | +2.0% | +2.8% | −28.9% |
The 12 most recent. All 15 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily volume at least 3× its previous 30-day average, and the day closes below its open. A surge of volume on a down day is read two opposite ways: as panic that marks a low, or as distribution before more selling.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Harmony | 25 | 68% | +11.6% | +12.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 XRP | 26 | 58% | +5.2% | +5.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Theta Network | 22 | 64% | +9.1% | +9.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin | 20 | 60% | +5.1% | +4.7% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Neo | 40 | 33% | −5.2% | −4.6% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Ethereum Classic | 37 | 54% | +1.7% | +2.7% | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 24 | 29% | −6.8% | −6.1% | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 33 | 61% | +3.1% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
Volume spike on a red day across all 94 coins
Other Aave signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals