Volatility squeeze: does it work in crypto?
Unusually tight Bollinger Bands are said to come before large moves, in either direction. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 1,862 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence0 of 870 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance49 of 87coins
Scored cases1,862since 2017
The rule. 20-day Bollinger Band width at its narrowest of the previous 120 days.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiliz | 24 | 63% | +6.0% | −0.7% | +6.7% | 31% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 29 | 41% | −3.1% | −0.2% | −2.9% | 58% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 25 | 56% | +2.1% | −1.0% | +3.0% | 56% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 25 | 36% | −5.0% | −1.0% | −4.0% | 60% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 14 | 36% | −10.4% | −3.0% | −7.4% | 41% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 35 | 63% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.3% | 96% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 11 | 18% | −11.0% | −2.7% | −8.3% | 52% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 16 | 63% | +4.7% | −1.7% | +6.4% | 49% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 25 | 36% | −3.6% | −0.6% | −3.0% | 69% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 30 | 43% | −1.1% | +0.3% | −1.4% | 84% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 26 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.8% | +1.8% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 24 | 58% | +1.5% | −1.0% | +2.5% | 65% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 20 | 55% | +2.1% | −0.5% | +2.6% | 63% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 20 | 60% | +2.2% | −1.3% | +3.5% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 29 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.3% | +1.5% | 91% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 23 | 35% | −3.7% | −0.6% | −3.1% | 75% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 31 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.5% | 96% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 24 | 38% | −3.3% | −1.2% | −2.1% | 77% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 25 | 60% | +2.0% | +0.1% | +1.9% | 85% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 21 | 57% | +3.0% | −0.6% | +3.6% | 74% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 12 | 58% | +3.7% | −1.5% | +5.2% | 61% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 26 | 54% | +0.5% | −0.8% | +1.3% | 87% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 24 | 33% | −1.9% | −0.1% | −1.7% | 84% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 11 | 64% | +3.7% | −2.5% | +6.2% | 60% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 21 | 62% | +2.1% | −1.4% | +3.5% | 74% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 27 | 52% | +0.3% | −0.6% | +0.9% | 93% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 21 | 24% | −4.4% | −1.3% | −3.1% | 80% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 19 | 53% | +1.1% | −1.6% | +2.7% | 75% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 20 | 40% | −2.9% | −0.8% | −2.0% | 87% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 17 | 65% | +1.6% | −1.1% | +2.6% | 79% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 21 | 43% | −1.6% | −0.4% | −1.1% | 93% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 14 | 57% | +2.4% | −0.9% | +3.3% | 79% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 14 | 57% | +1.9% | −1.2% | +3.1% | 79% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 22 | 55% | +0.3% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 96% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 16 | 56% | +2.1% | −0.4% | +2.5% | 87% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 19 | 37% | −1.8% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 93% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 16 | 44% | −1.9% | −0.9% | −1.0% | 93% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 14 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.7% | +1.4% | 93% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 16 | 31% | −0.6% | −0.3% | −0.3% | 97% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 17 | 41% | −1.9% | −1.5% | −0.4% | 98% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 17 | 41% | −1.5% | −1.7% | +0.3% | 99% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 15 | 47% | −0.7% | −1.0% | +0.3% | 99% | 33 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 11 | 45% | −0.4% | −1.5% | +1.1% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 10 | 50% | +5.5% | −1.9% | +7.5% | 53% | 28 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 10 | 40% | −6.8% | −1.4% | −5.4% | 68% | 24 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 25 | 32% | −2.7% | +0.6% | −3.3% | 42% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 40 | 53% | +0.4% | +0.5% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 19 | 42% | −6.3% | −1.3% | −5.0% | 51% | 20 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 34 | 44% | −0.4% | +0.5% | −0.9% | 87% | 19 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 20 | 55% | +4.0% | −1.3% | +5.4% | 54% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 11 | 27% | −9.2% | −2.2% | −7.0% | 55% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 23 | 57% | +2.0% | −0.9% | +2.9% | 72% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 28 | 50% | −2.3% | −1.1% | −1.1% | 89% | 17 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 30 | 43% | −1.5% | −0.8% | −0.7% | 94% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 24 | 42% | −2.6% | −0.3% | −2.3% | 82% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 27 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.8% | +1.0% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 25 | 56% | +0.6% | −1.2% | +1.9% | 89% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 28 | 39% | −0.9% | −0.5% | −0.4% | 97% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 19 | 53% | +0.6% | −1.6% | +2.2% | 78% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 23 | 43% | −1.2% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 92% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 28 | 50% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 24 | 50% | +0.4% | −0.5% | +0.9% | 94% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 19 | 37% | −4.3% | −1.6% | −2.7% | 82% | 14 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 20 | 50% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.4% | 84% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 28 | 50% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 0.0% | 100% | 14 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 19 | 58% | +1.8% | −0.4% | +2.3% | 81% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 19 | 58% | +1.2% | −0.7% | +1.9% | 86% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 26 | 50% | −0.5% | −0.4% | −0.1% | 99% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 23 | 43% | −0.8% | −1.2% | +0.4% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 12 | 58% | +3.7% | −0.3% | +4.0% | 80% | 12 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 21 | 43% | −0.7% | −1.3% | +0.6% | 96% | 12 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 22 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.3% | +0.6% | 97% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 20 | 45% | −0.7% | −1.1% | +0.4% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 17 | 35% | −1.5% | −0.1% | −1.4% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 21 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 99% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 16 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.3% | +1.3% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 19 | 47% | −2.0% | −1.2% | −0.8% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 21 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 16 | 31% | −2.8% | −1.2% | −1.6% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 19 | 47% | −2.5% | −1.8% | −0.8% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 16 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.3% | +0.7% | 94% | 10 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 20 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.7% | +0.1% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 18 | 33% | −1.4% | −1.5% | +0.1% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 16 | 25% | −2.4% | −2.2% | −0.1% | 99% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 14 | 36% | −1.1% | −1.7% | +0.6% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 13 | 46% | −2.1% | −1.2% | −1.0% | 97% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 12 | 42% | −0.3% | −0.2% | −0.1% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 8 | 38% | −6.3% | −1.7% | −4.6% | 29% | Too few cases | |
 Pepe | 9 | 56% | +9.0% | −1.4% | +10.4% | 5.4% | Too few cases | |
| Worldcoin | 8 | 25% | −6.3% | −2.7% | −3.6% | 51% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 9 | 44% | −1.2% | −0.5% | −0.7% | 90% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 8 | 63% | +8.2% | −2.0% | +10.1% | 3.5% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 9 | 78% | +14.7% | −1.9% | +16.6% | 0.6% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 9 | 22% | −6.2% | −3.4% | −2.7% | 54% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.