Optimism · OP/USDT · daily
What happens to Optimism after a volatility squeeze?
Since 2022, Optimism has shown a volatility squeeze 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 40% of the time, with a median move of −6.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for OP is −1.4%.
No better than chance24
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 68% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | 20% | −1.3% | −2.8% to −0.5% | −0.3% | −1.1% | 72% | 20 |
| 3 days | 10 | 30% | −4.2% | −9.9% to +2.1% | −0.8% | −3.4% | 58% | 24 |
| 7 days | 10 | 40% | −6.8% | −13.8% to +9.1% | −1.4% | −5.4% | 68% | 24 |
| 14 days | 10 | 20% | −5.7% | −13.2% to −4.5% | −3.0% | −2.7% | 94% | 18 |
| 30 days | 10 | 40% | −2.4% | −6.3% to +31.0% | −5.7% | +3.3% | 96% | 18 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of OP over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 23%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2026 | $0.08870 | −2.6% | +10.5% | +8.0% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | $0.1204 | −0.4% | +4.9% | −4.3% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | $0.3233 | −2.8% | −15.4% | −2.5% |
| 27 Mar 2025 | $0.9050 | −8.0% | −22.7% | −7.0% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | $1.72 | −6.2% | −6.8% | +38.7% |
| 18 Oct 2024 | $1.72 | −1.5% | −9.3% | −2.3% |
| 19 Sep 2023 | $1.38 | +0.7% | −6.7% | −15.3% |
| 12 Apr 2023 | $2.28 | +6.5% | +11.5% | −26.5% |
| 4 Jan 2023 | $1.03 | −0.6% | +24.4% | +201.1% |
| 7 Oct 2022 | $0.8460 | −1.2% | −15.2% | +51.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.
The rule
20-day Bollinger Band width at its narrowest of the previous 120 days. Unusually tight Bollinger Bands are said to come before large moves, in either direction.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiliz | 24 | 63% | +6.0% | +6.7% | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 29 | 41% | −3.1% | −2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 25 | 56% | +2.1% | +3.0% | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 25 | 36% | −5.0% | −4.0% | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 35 | 63% | +0.9% | +0.3% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 25 | 36% | −3.6% | −3.0% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 30 | 43% | −1.1% | −1.4% | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 26 | 54% | +1.1% | +1.8% | Weak evidence |
Volatility squeeze across all 94 coins
Other Optimism signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals