What happens to Memecoin after a volatility squeeze?

Since 2023, Memecoin has shown a volatility squeeze 9 times. In the 9 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 22% of the time, with a median move of −6.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for MEME is −3.4%.

Too few cases

With 9 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20239last on 6 May 2026

Higher after 7 days22%ordinary: 38%

Median 7-day move−6.2%ordinary: −3.4%

Could be luck54%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−24% / +26%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary MEME drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 9 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	9	56%	+0.3%	−6.2% to +3.4%	−0.7%	+1.0%	60%
3 days	9	33%	−7.1%	−9.8% to +1.8%	−1.4%	−5.7%	7.6%
7 days	9	22%	−6.2%	−9.7% to −4.4%	−3.4%	−2.7%	54%
14 days	9	22%	−13.5%	−27.3% to −0.7%	−6.9%	−6.7%	32%
30 days	9	33%	−5.4%	−33.3% to +3.0%	−11.4%	+6.0%	60%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of MEME over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 54%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−15.7%ordinary MEME: −10.9%

1 case in 4 dipped past−16.6%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way67%ordinary: 54%

Typical best point+6.1%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−6.5%ordinary: −3.7%

Ahead after costs22%ordinary: 38%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
6 May 2026	$0.00061100	+0.3%	−4.4%	−5.4%
14 Apr 2026	$0.00051200	+6.6%	+12.3%	+16.0%
24 Mar 2026	$0.00057900	+2.2%	−9.5%	−1.6%
17 Mar 2026	$0.00060600	−4.0%	−4.5%	+3.0%
21 Jan 2026	$0.00115	−6.2%	−9.7%	−39.9%
19 Sep 2025	$0.00255	+3.4%	−6.2%	−33.3%
11 Aug 2025	$0.00170	+6.7%	+25.7%	+48.8%
28 Mar 2025	$0.00229	−8.9%	−19.2%	−9.3%
6 Jan 2025	$0.01149	−12.0%	−24.3%	−58.5%

The 12 most recent. All 9 are in the open data file.

The rule

20-day Bollinger Band width at its narrowest of the previous 120 days. Unusually tight Bollinger Bands are said to come before large moves, in either direction.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Chiliz	24	63%	+6.0%	+6.7%	Weak evidence
Bitcoin Cash	29	41%	−3.1%	−2.9%	Weak evidence
Dogecoin	25	56%	+2.1%	+3.0%	Weak evidence
Algorand	25	36%	−5.0%	−4.0%	Weak evidence
TRON	35	63%	+0.9%	+0.3%	Weak evidence
Neo	25	36%	−3.6%	−3.0%	Weak evidence
Ethereum	30	43%	−1.1%	−1.4%	Weak evidence
XRP	26	54%	+1.1%	+1.8%	Weak evidence

Volatility squeeze across all 94 coins

Other Memecoin signals

7% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 55 cases Extreme sell pressureWeak evidence · 35 cases 20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 26 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 45 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 50 cases 20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 29 cases

Full Memecoin record

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