Pepe · PEPE/USDT · daily
What happens to Pepe after a volatility squeeze?
Since 2023, Pepe has shown a volatility squeeze 9 times. In the 9 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 56% of the time, with a median move of +9.0%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for PEPE is −1.4%.
Too few cases
With 9 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 9 | 56% | +0.5% | −4.9% to +3.4% | −0.2% | +0.7% | 70% | |
| 3 days | 9 | 67% | +2.4% | −9.8% to +5.2% | −0.9% | +3.3% | 32% | |
| 7 days | 9 | 56% | +9.0% | −5.6% to +26.3% | −1.4% | +10.4% | 5.4% | |
| 14 days | 9 | 56% | +4.6% | −26.6% to +38.5% | −2.3% | +6.9% | 37% | |
| 30 days | 9 | 56% | +11.0% | −14.3% to +17.1% | −3.6% | +14.6% | 25% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of PEPE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 5.4%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 May 2026 | $0.00000399 | +3.0% | +9.0% | −21.8% |
| 5 Apr 2026 | $0.00000349 | −4.9% | −0.6% | +17.8% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | $0.00000403 | +22.1% | +62.8% | +15.1% |
| 2 Nov 2025 | $0.00000670 | −14.6% | −9.6% | −31.9% |
| 5 Jul 2025 | $0.00000969 | +3.4% | +26.3% | +11.0% |
| 23 Feb 2025 | $0.00000935 | −15.6% | −5.6% | −14.3% |
| 15 Sep 2024 | $0.00000735 | −2.0% | +9.0% | +41.2% |
| 26 Jun 2024 | $0.00001254 | +0.5% | −18.3% | −4.1% |
| 1 Dec 2023 | $0.00000111 | +5.4% | +42.3% | +17.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 9 are in the open data file.
The rule
20-day Bollinger Band width at its narrowest of the previous 120 days. Unusually tight Bollinger Bands are said to come before large moves, in either direction.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiliz | 24 | 63% | +6.0% | +6.7% | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 29 | 41% | −3.1% | −2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 25 | 56% | +2.1% | +3.0% | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 25 | 36% | −5.0% | −4.0% | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 35 | 63% | +0.9% | +0.3% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 25 | 36% | −3.6% | −3.0% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 30 | 43% | −1.1% | −1.4% | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 26 | 54% | +1.1% | +1.8% | Weak evidence |
Volatility squeeze across all 94 coins
Other Pepe signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals