What happens to Worldcoin after a volatility squeeze?

Since 2023, Worldcoin has shown a volatility squeeze 8 times. In the 8 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 25% of the time, with a median move of −6.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for WLD is −2.7%.

Too few cases

With 8 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20238last on 3 Mar 2026

Higher after 7 days25%ordinary: 41%

Median 7-day move−6.3%ordinary: −2.7%

Could be luck51%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−18% / +61%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary WLD drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 8 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	8	38%	−0.7%	−1.7% to +3.8%	−0.6%	−0.1%	95%
3 days	8	50%	+2.1%	−8.4% to +6.9%	−1.4%	+3.5%	40%
7 days	8	25%	−6.3%	−10.0% to +5.3%	−2.7%	−3.6%	51%
14 days	8	50%	−2.9%	−24.1% to +20.1%	−4.1%	+1.2%	89%
30 days	8	38%	−12.9%	−28.9% to +4.7%	−7.4%	−5.5%	69%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of WLD over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 51%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−10.2%ordinary WLD: −11.2%

1 case in 4 dipped past−17.4%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way50%ordinary: 55%

Typical best point+11.3%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−6.6%ordinary: −3.0%

Ahead after costs25%ordinary: 41%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
3 Mar 2026	$0.3931	+6.8%	−9.3%	−31.8%
22 Feb 2026	$0.3839	−2.9%	0.0%	−16.3%
9 Dec 2025	$0.6440	−4.3%	−18.0%	−9.5%
9 Jul 2025	$0.9130	+17.0%	+21.2%	+13.3%
2 Jul 2025	$0.9440	−0.1%	−3.3%	+2.1%
22 Feb 2025	$1.26	−1.4%	−12.0%	−27.9%
2 Jun 2024	$4.68	+2.8%	−9.4%	−51.3%
11 Dec 2023	$2.45	−1.3%	+61.1%	+12.4%

The 12 most recent. All 8 are in the open data file.

The rule

20-day Bollinger Band width at its narrowest of the previous 120 days. Unusually tight Bollinger Bands are said to come before large moves, in either direction.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Chiliz	24	63%	+6.0%	+6.7%	Weak evidence
Bitcoin Cash	29	41%	−3.1%	−2.9%	Weak evidence
Dogecoin	25	56%	+2.1%	+3.0%	Weak evidence
Algorand	25	36%	−5.0%	−4.0%	Weak evidence
TRON	35	63%	+0.9%	+0.3%	Weak evidence
Neo	25	36%	−3.6%	−3.0%	Weak evidence
Ethereum	30	43%	−1.1%	−1.4%	Weak evidence
XRP	26	54%	+1.1%	+1.8%	Weak evidence

Volatility squeeze across all 94 coins

Other Worldcoin signals

7% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 74 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 67 cases 5% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 100 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 38 cases 20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 35 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 28 cases

Full Worldcoin record

Want to know the moment this fires again?

New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.

See today's signals