Axie Infinity · AXS/USDT · daily
What happens to Axie Infinity after a volatility squeeze?
Since 2020, Axie Infinity has shown a volatility squeeze 14 times. In the 14 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 57% of the time, with a median move of +1.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AXS is −1.2%.
Weak evidence38
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 79% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | 50% | +0.2% | −2.1% to +3.5% | −0.1% | +0.3% | 90% | 9 |
| 3 days | 14 | 50% | 0.0% | −6.8% to +2.4% | −0.6% | +0.6% | 93% | 9 |
| 7 days | 14 | 57% | +1.9% | −9.5% to +4.5% | −1.2% | +3.1% | 79% | 38 |
| 14 days | 14 | 43% | −3.8% | −14.8% to +18.1% | −2.8% | −1.0% | 97% | 8 |
| 30 days | 14 | 50% | −4.0% | −19.4% to +23.4% | −6.4% | +2.4% | 97% | 9 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AXS over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 39%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 8 the gap over 7 days was +4.0%, and in the later 6 it was +0.7%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | $1.11 | −0.2% | −2.6% | +22.9% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | $2.13 | +9.0% | +1.6% | +6.7% |
| 21 Feb 2025 | $4.20 | +1.4% | −10.5% | −20.1% |
| 10 Feb 2024 | $7.44 | +0.4% | +6.7% | +68.6% |
| 6 Oct 2023 | $4.51 | 0.0% | −6.4% | +26.8% |
| 27 May 2023 | $7.00 | +2.3% | +2.3% | −17.3% |
| 4 Apr 2023 | $8.41 | +3.9% | +3.3% | −10.0% |
| 9 Oct 2022 | $12.43 | −4.0% | −11.1% | −35.8% |
| 2 Oct 2022 | $12.15 | +4.4% | +2.3% | −25.0% |
| 15 Aug 2022 | $18.18 | −1.3% | −21.7% | −26.7% |
| 17 Jul 2022 | $14.52 | +12.7% | +18.7% | +23.6% |
| 23 Oct 2021 | $125.7 | −2.3% | +16.9% | +1.9% |
The 12 most recent. All 14 are in the open data file.
The rule
20-day Bollinger Band width at its narrowest of the previous 120 days. Unusually tight Bollinger Bands are said to come before large moves, in either direction.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiliz | 24 | 63% | +6.0% | +6.7% | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 29 | 41% | −3.1% | −2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 25 | 56% | +2.1% | +3.0% | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 25 | 36% | −5.0% | −4.0% | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 35 | 63% | +0.9% | +0.3% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 25 | 36% | −3.6% | −3.0% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 30 | 43% | −1.1% | −1.4% | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 26 | 54% | +1.1% | +1.8% | Weak evidence |
Volatility squeeze across all 94 coins
Other Axie Infinity signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals