After a 7% drop in a day: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 8,739 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence3 of 941 lean up · 2 lean down
No better than chance47 of 94coins
Scored cases8,739since 2017
The rule. Close at least 7% below the close one day earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Prom | 52 | 62% | +3.5% | −0.2% | +3.7% | 14% | 76 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Beam | 53 | 34% | −7.2% | −0.5% | −6.7% | 8.5% | 64 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Request | 58 | 45% | −3.4% | −0.5% | −2.9% | 22% | 59 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Cyber | 57 | 40% | −6.0% | −2.0% | −4.0% | 33% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 97 | 54% | +1.5% | −1.1% | +2.6% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 66 | 29% | −5.6% | −1.4% | −4.2% | 32% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 55 | 53% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.4% | 38% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 64 | 34% | −6.1% | −2.5% | −3.5% | 45% | 51 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 62 | 29% | −5.1% | −1.9% | −3.2% | 38% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 52 | 38% | −4.1% | −1.7% | −2.3% | 67% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 51 | 35% | −3.4% | −1.6% | −1.8% | 68% | 50 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 83 | 36% | −4.2% | −1.7% | −2.4% | 49% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 64 | 34% | −2.9% | −0.9% | −2.0% | 53% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 99 | 46% | −1.1% | +0.3% | −1.4% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 93 | 37% | −2.7% | −1.1% | −1.7% | 63% | 49 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 74 | 32% | −5.0% | −2.7% | −2.3% | 66% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 71 | 46% | −0.7% | +0.6% | −1.3% | 67% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 91 | 27% | −4.0% | −1.7% | −2.3% | 57% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 114 | 54% | +0.5% | −0.9% | +1.3% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 82 | 41% | −3.3% | −1.4% | −1.8% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 109 | 40% | −2.7% | −0.8% | −1.9% | 61% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 101 | 41% | −3.4% | −1.3% | −2.0% | 63% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 110 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.2% | +1.4% | 64% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 132 | 39% | −3.3% | −1.3% | −1.9% | 64% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 85 | 34% | −3.2% | −1.5% | −1.7% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 132 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.4% | −1.8% | 69% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 112 | 39% | −3.3% | −1.4% | −1.9% | 62% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 71 | 55% | +0.7% | −0.4% | +1.1% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 85 | 58% | +1.3% | +0.5% | +0.9% | 75% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 95 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.8% | +0.8% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 93 | 43% | −1.1% | −0.1% | −1.1% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 134 | 46% | −1.3% | +0.1% | −1.4% | 69% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 127 | 45% | −1.7% | −0.5% | −1.1% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 122 | 44% | −2.0% | −0.7% | −1.3% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 80 | 40% | −2.6% | −1.7% | −0.9% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 106 | 39% | −4.2% | −3.0% | −1.3% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 136 | 46% | −1.8% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 76% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 84 | 40% | −2.3% | −1.3% | −1.0% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 91 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 115 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.2% | +0.5% | 90% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 87 | 41% | −1.8% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 105 | 38% | −2.1% | −1.2% | −0.9% | 86% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 128 | 47% | −0.6% | −1.0% | +0.4% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 101 | 41% | −2.2% | −1.6% | −0.7% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 124 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.1% | +0.3% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 136 | 47% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 85 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 70 | 39% | −4.3% | −1.1% | −3.3% | 33% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 88 | 40% | −4.8% | −1.7% | −3.1% | 42% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 105 | 44% | −1.7% | +0.1% | −1.8% | 61% | 24 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 116 | 43% | −2.5% | −0.3% | −2.2% | 55% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 99 | 41% | −2.4% | −0.7% | −1.7% | 63% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 105 | 53% | +1.3% | −0.4% | +1.7% | 67% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 132 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.6% | +1.3% | 63% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 54 | 37% | −3.8% | −2.2% | −1.6% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 130 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.8% | −1.4% | 61% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 113 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +1.1% | 77% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 84 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.0% | +1.1% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 54 | 43% | −2.3% | −1.5% | −0.8% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 118 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 78% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 160 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.2% | +1.3% | 75% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 66 | 38% | −3.7% | −2.7% | −1.0% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 71 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.5% | +0.7% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 71 | 35% | −1.6% | −0.8% | −0.7% | 89% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 101 | 42% | −2.0% | −0.9% | −1.1% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 56 | 46% | −1.2% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 79 | 48% | −1.0% | −0.3% | −0.7% | 89% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 112 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.2% | +0.9% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 139 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.3% | +1.0% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 102 | 41% | −1.6% | −0.6% | −0.9% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 54 | 43% | −0.7% | −1.6% | +0.8% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 54 | 50% | +0.1% | +0.5% | −0.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 73 | 55% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.2% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 48 | 46% | −1.0% | −1.5% | +0.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 155 | 46% | −1.7% | −1.3% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 129 | 47% | −1.1% | −0.6% | −0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 85 | 49% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 63 | 40% | −2.5% | −1.9% | −0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 127 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.7% | −0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 53 | 30% | −2.4% | −2.2% | −0.2% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 56 | 41% | −3.0% | −3.4% | +0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 99 | 37% | −2.3% | −1.7% | −0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 114 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.3% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 97 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.0% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 76 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.2% | +0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 115 | 46% | −0.8% | −0.6% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 107 | 45% | −0.9% | −1.0% | +0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 98 | 44% | −1.4% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 116 | 47% | −0.5% | −0.5% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 107 | 45% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +0.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 108 | 44% | −2.0% | −1.8% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 109 | 43% | −1.2% | −1.2% | −0.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 127 | 49% | −0.6% | −0.8% | +0.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 20 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.3% | +0.3% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.