Polkadot · DOT/USDT · daily
What happens to Polkadot after a 7% drop in a day?
Since 2020, Polkadot has shown a 7% drop in a day 86 times. In the 84 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of +0.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for DOT is −1.0%.
No better than chance22
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 79% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 84 | 52% | +0.3% | −2.7% to +3.3% | −0.1% | +0.4% | 60% | 23 |
| 3 days | 84 | 57% | +1.2% | −4.3% to +7.4% | −0.4% | +1.6% | 37% | 50 |
| 7 days | 84 | 50% | +0.1% | −7.3% to +5.7% | −1.0% | +1.1% | 79% | 22 |
| 14 days | 84 | 39% | −3.3% | −11.0% to +7.4% | −2.1% | −1.2% | 88% | 22 |
| 30 days | 83 | 39% | −8.6% | −18.5% to +10.3% | −5.1% | −3.5% | 79% | 49 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of DOT over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 38%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 50 the gap over 7 days was +2.0%, and in the later 34 it was −0.5%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | $0.9090 | +7.3% | 0.0% | open |
| 7 Oct 2026 | $1.12 | −2.4% | +2.7% | −18.3% |
| 23 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | +4.9% | +11.0% | −1.4% |
| 9 Sep 2026 | $1.12 | −2.4% | −9.3% | +10.1% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | $0.7590 | +0.3% | +8.7% | +15.4% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | $0.9460 | −0.3% | +1.2% | −6.9% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | $1.53 | −1.6% | −5.3% | −18.3% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | $1.25 | +9.6% | +2.8% | +16.0% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | $1.74 | −2.6% | −28.1% | −4.3% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | $2.04 | +10.1% | +4.3% | −12.4% |
| 21 Nov 2025 | $2.35 | −1.6% | −2.7% | −23.3% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | $2.59 | −3.0% | +26.3% | −8.5% |
The 12 most recent. All 86 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 7% below the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Prom | 52 | 62% | +3.5% | +3.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Beam | 53 | 34% | −7.2% | −6.7% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Request | 58 | 45% | −3.4% | −2.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Cyber | 57 | 40% | −6.0% | −4.0% | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 97 | 54% | +1.5% | +2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 66 | 29% | −5.6% | −4.2% | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 55 | 53% | +1.1% | +2.4% | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 64 | 34% | −6.1% | −3.5% | Weak evidence |
7% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Polkadot signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
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