What happens to ApeCoin after a 7% drop in a day?

Since 2022, ApeCoin has shown a 7% drop in a day 83 times. In the 80 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 40% of the time, with a median move of −2.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for APE is −1.7%.

Weak evidence47

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 86% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 202283last on 5 Nov 2026

Higher after 7 days40%ordinary: 43%

Median 7-day move−2.6%ordinary: −1.7%

Could be luck86%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−39% / +66%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary APE drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 79 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	80	45%	−0.4%	−4.0% to +3.5%	−0.2%	−0.2%	87%	21
3 days	80	51%	+0.2%	−6.8% to +4.8%	−0.6%	+0.9%	64%	48
7 days	80	40%	−2.6%	−9.2% to +6.0%	−1.7%	−0.9%	86%	47
14 days	79	42%	−4.7%	−13.9% to +7.0%	−4.6%	−0.1%	99%	20
30 days	77	32%	−10.2%	−24.9% to +8.3%	−9.6%	−0.6%	97%	46

“Ordinary median” is the median move of APE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 49%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−9.0%ordinary APE: −8.8%

1 case in 4 dipped past−16.9%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way49%ordinary: 44%

Typical best point+7.7%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−2.9%ordinary: −2.0%

Ahead after costs39%ordinary: 43%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 48 the gap over 7 days was 0.0%, and in the later 32 it was −2.1%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
5 Nov 2026	$0.1068	+2.2%	−9.2%	open
29 Oct 2026	$0.1134	+2.3%	−5.8%	open
22 Oct 2026	$0.1358	−2.8%	−16.5%	open
23 Sep 2026	$0.1470	+2.9%	+2.4%	−10.2%
10 Sep 2026	$0.1313	+0.5%	−1.6%	+16.8%
29 Jul 2026	$0.1391	−4.0%	−2.5%	−1.4%
27 Jun 2026	$0.1375	−1.3%	+6.3%	+8.3%
4 Jun 2026	$0.1370	−8.2%	−4.2%	+6.7%
25 Apr 2026	$0.1551	−6.4%	+14.2%	−12.1%
18 Mar 2026	$0.09520	−0.3%	−5.3%	+11.7%
18 Feb 2026	$0.1165	−4.6%	−5.7%	−19.3%
5 Feb 2026	$0.1193	+11.0%	+7.1%	−20.7%

The 12 most recent. All 83 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 7% below the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Prom	52	62%	+3.5%	+3.7%	Strong evidence · leans up
Beam	53	34%	−7.2%	−6.7%	Some evidence · leans down
Request	58	45%	−3.4%	−2.9%	Some evidence · leans down
Cyber	57	40%	−6.0%	−4.0%	Weak evidence
Stellar	97	54%	+1.5%	+2.6%	Weak evidence
Pepe	66	29%	−5.6%	−4.2%	Weak evidence
Quant	55	53%	+1.1%	+2.4%	Weak evidence
Arkham	64	34%	−6.1%	−3.5%	Weak evidence

7% drop in a day across all 94 coins

Other ApeCoin signals

Bitcoin drops 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 35 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 38 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 33 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 76 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 44 cases 5% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 112 cases

Full ApeCoin record

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