What happens to Arkham after a 7% drop in a day?

Since 2023, Arkham has shown a 7% drop in a day 67 times. In the 64 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 34% of the time, with a median move of −6.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARKM is −2.5%.

Weak evidence51

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 45% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 202367last on 5 Nov 2026

Higher after 7 days34%ordinary: 42%

Median 7-day move−6.1%ordinary: −2.5%

Could be luck45%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−24% / +59%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary ARKM drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 65 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	64	45%	−1.4%	−4.6% to +5.0%	−0.3%	−1.1%	40%	25
3 days	64	47%	−0.6%	−7.6% to +6.3%	−0.9%	+0.4%	93%	21
7 days	64	34%	−6.1%	−11.2% to +3.6%	−2.5%	−3.5%	45%	51
14 days	63	35%	−6.3%	−17.2% to +6.5%	−4.1%	−2.2%	86%	48
30 days	62	42%	−6.3%	−24.4% to +10.6%	−5.5%	−0.8%	97%	21

“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARKM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 7.0%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−13.1%ordinary ARKM: −10.7%

1 case in 4 dipped past−19.9%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way67%ordinary: 53%

Typical best point+9.9%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−6.4%ordinary: −2.8%

Ahead after costs34%ordinary: 42%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 38 the gap over 7 days was −3.3%, and in the later 26 it was −3.5%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
5 Nov 2026	$0.1018	+3.2%	−5.6%	open
29 Oct 2026	$0.1085	+5.4%	−6.2%	open
12 Oct 2026	$0.1281	+3.0%	−8.7%	−24.2%
23 Sep 2026	$0.1218	+4.9%	+8.8%	+8.9%
10 Sep 2026	$0.09580	+4.4%	+6.4%	+38.3%
10 Jun 2026	$0.1102	+10.3%	+18.4%	+4.1%
2 Jun 2026	$0.1322	+12.0%	−9.0%	−14.0%
15 May 2026	$0.1253	−4.8%	+2.2%	+5.1%
18 Mar 2026	$0.1110	−2.7%	−4.5%	+9.0%
5 Feb 2026	$0.1150	+12.2%	0.0%	−12.2%
25 Jan 2026	$0.1660	+1.2%	−21.7%	−36.7%
18 Jan 2026	$0.1940	−3.1%	−14.4%	−39.7%

The 12 most recent. All 67 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 7% below the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Prom	52	62%	+3.5%	+3.7%	Strong evidence · leans up
Beam	53	34%	−7.2%	−6.7%	Some evidence · leans down
Request	58	45%	−3.4%	−2.9%	Some evidence · leans down
Cyber	57	40%	−6.0%	−4.0%	Weak evidence
Stellar	97	54%	+1.5%	+2.6%	Weak evidence
Pepe	66	29%	−5.6%	−4.2%	Weak evidence
Quant	55	53%	+1.1%	+2.4%	Weak evidence
Floki	62	29%	−5.1%	−3.2%	Weak evidence

7% drop in a day across all 94 coins

Other Arkham signals

10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 43 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 44 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 64 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 32 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 35 cases 20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 36 cases

Full Arkham record

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