After a 20% drop in 3 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 1,773 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence3 of 853 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance50 of 85coins
Scored cases1,773since 2017
The rule. Close at least 20% below the close 3 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dogecoin | 19 | 68% | +8.2% | −1.0% | +9.1% | 5.5% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 TRON | 13 | 77% | +8.7% | +0.7% | +8.0% | 6.2% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 DeXe | 19 | 58% | +6.8% | −0.3% | +7.0% | 22% | 55 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Reserve Rights | 39 | 54% | +4.2% | −1.3% | +5.6% | 42% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 34 | 35% | −6.7% | −1.3% | −5.4% | 38% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 19 | 74% | +5.9% | −0.1% | +6.0% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 30 | 53% | +2.6% | −0.6% | +3.2% | 61% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 34 | 32% | −3.9% | −1.2% | −2.8% | 73% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 14 | 71% | +4.3% | −0.8% | +5.1% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 24 | 63% | +5.5% | +0.1% | +5.4% | 45% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 12 | 33% | −6.2% | −0.5% | −5.7% | 32% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 15 | 73% | +6.4% | −0.3% | +6.7% | 48% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 21 | 71% | +3.2% | −1.3% | +4.5% | 53% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 19 | 63% | +3.8% | −1.7% | +5.6% | 47% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 24 | 67% | +2.6% | −0.2% | +2.8% | 62% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 25 | 56% | +1.3% | −1.2% | +2.4% | 73% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 12 | 42% | −4.4% | −0.2% | −4.2% | 55% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 22 | 36% | −4.7% | −1.5% | −3.2% | 68% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 16 | 63% | +3.9% | −0.4% | +4.3% | 65% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 25 | 40% | −3.0% | −1.2% | −1.8% | 87% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 23 | 39% | −3.4% | −0.7% | −2.7% | 79% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 12 | 67% | +2.5% | −1.1% | +3.7% | 66% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 25 | 56% | +1.2% | −0.5% | +1.7% | 88% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 17 | 53% | +2.0% | −1.9% | +3.9% | 71% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 19 | 26% | −3.3% | −1.1% | −2.3% | 80% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 22 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.3% | +1.5% | 90% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 16 | 56% | +0.7% | −0.8% | +1.6% | 87% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 14 | 64% | +7.3% | +0.6% | +6.7% | 18% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 12 | 58% | +1.3% | −1.6% | +2.9% | 79% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 19 | 47% | −1.7% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 93% | 36 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 13 | 54% | +0.1% | −2.7% | +2.8% | 86% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 11 | 82% | +0.7% | −1.5% | +2.2% | 84% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 15 | 40% | −2.7% | −1.1% | −1.7% | 91% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 14 | 50% | +0.8% | −1.7% | +2.5% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 19 | 47% | −1.3% | −1.8% | +0.5% | 98% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 15 | 47% | −1.6% | −2.5% | +0.9% | 97% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 12 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.0% | +1.0% | 95% | 33 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 10 | 30% | −8.0% | −2.0% | −6.0% | 59% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 19 | 58% | +7.0% | −0.9% | +7.8% | 24% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 10 | 70% | +2.3% | −1.6% | +3.9% | 67% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 16 | 63% | +6.7% | +0.3% | +6.4% | 27% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 22 | 73% | +6.1% | +0.1% | +6.0% | 37% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 43 | 49% | −0.1% | −1.2% | +1.1% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 28 | 43% | −4.0% | −0.6% | −3.4% | 57% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 23 | 57% | +3.7% | −0.6% | +4.3% | 54% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 39 | 44% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 24 | 58% | +3.1% | −0.8% | +3.9% | 55% | 20 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 23 | 57% | +3.1% | −0.8% | +4.0% | 58% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 16 | 56% | +4.5% | −1.4% | +5.9% | 53% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 13 | 23% | −7.0% | −1.3% | −5.7% | 55% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 25 | 56% | +2.2% | −0.6% | +2.8% | 77% | 18 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 20 | 60% | +3.5% | −0.4% | +3.9% | 61% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 26 | 54% | +1.5% | −0.5% | +1.9% | 79% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 31 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.6% | +0.9% | 95% | 17 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 21 | 33% | −5.5% | −1.7% | −3.8% | 70% | 17 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 17 | 47% | −6.3% | −1.7% | −4.6% | 61% | 17 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 30 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.3% | +1.3% | 91% | 17 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 33 | 48% | 0.0% | −0.3% | +0.3% | 99% | 17 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 30 | 47% | −1.3% | −0.8% | −0.5% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 19 | 42% | −4.4% | −0.9% | −3.5% | 73% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 25 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.3% | +1.7% | 83% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 25 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.2% | +1.3% | 93% | 15 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 27 | 41% | −1.0% | −1.3% | +0.3% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 27 | 37% | −1.5% | −1.4% | −0.1% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 23 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.6% | +1.4% | 92% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 17 | 53% | +1.5% | −1.0% | +2.5% | 84% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 18 | 44% | −1.6% | −0.4% | −1.2% | 86% | 13 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 21 | 43% | −1.8% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 94% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 16 | 44% | −2.3% | −0.1% | −2.3% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 23 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.7% | +0.1% | 100% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 19 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.5% | 97% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 14 | 64% | +1.6% | −0.2% | +1.8% | 86% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 19 | 47% | −0.2% | −1.0% | +0.8% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 21 | 48% | 0.0% | −0.1% | 0.0% | 100% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 18 | 44% | −1.9% | −3.0% | +1.0% | 95% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 17 | 47% | −1.8% | −0.9% | −1.0% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 18 | 67% | +0.7% | +0.5% | +0.2% | 98% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 16 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 13 | 46% | −2.4% | −0.5% | −1.9% | 92% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 17 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.2% | +0.4% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 11 | 36% | −3.6% | −1.9% | −1.7% | 91% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 14 | 36% | −2.6% | −3.4% | +0.9% | 96% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 12 | 50% | −1.2% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 97% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 13 | 31% | −0.9% | −1.4% | +0.5% | 98% | 7 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 14 | 50% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 7 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 8 | 75% | +6.2% | +0.5% | +5.7% | 5.1% | Too few cases | |
 Aptos | 9 | 56% | +0.1% | −1.5% | +1.6% | 73% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 9 | 56% | +2.5% | −1.7% | +4.3% | 33% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 6 | 67% | +6.0% | −1.5% | +7.5% | 17% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 5 | 80% | +4.6% | −1.3% | +5.9% | 18% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 9 | 22% | −1.7% | −2.7% | +1.0% | 85% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 7 | 29% | −4.1% | −2.2% | −1.8% | 72% | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 8 | 63% | +2.3% | −2.2% | +4.6% | 15% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 2 | 0% | −16.7% | −0.3% | −16.4% | 1.0% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.