Arweave · AR/USDT · daily
What happens to Arweave after a 20% drop in 3 days?
Since 2021, Arweave has shown a 20% drop in 3 days 27 times. In the 25 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 40% of the time, with a median move of −3.0%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AR is −1.2%.
Weak evidence41
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 87% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 25 | 44% | −2.0% | −3.9% to +6.1% | −0.3% | −1.7% | 34% | 20 |
| 3 days | 25 | 52% | +0.7% | −6.7% to +4.8% | −0.8% | +1.4% | 76% | 16 |
| 7 days | 25 | 40% | −3.0% | −10.8% to +7.3% | −1.2% | −1.8% | 87% | 41 |
| 14 days | 25 | 40% | −4.3% | −18.6% to +22.3% | −3.1% | −1.1% | 96% | 14 |
| 30 days | 25 | 32% | −19.2% | −29.4% to +8.0% | −6.2% | −13.0% | 48% | 48 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AR over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 53%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 15 the gap over 7 days was −0.7%, and in the later 10 it was −2.1%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jun 2026 | $1.87 | +6.1% | +9.5% | +8.0% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | $2.58 | −5.0% | −21.7% | −36.8% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | $5.52 | −14.1% | −23.4% | −26.3% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $4.00 | +0.8% | −3.0% | +44.0% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | $5.64 | +6.6% | +22.3% | −3.9% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | $12.51 | −6.2% | −28.5% | −40.8% |
| 9 Jan 2025 | $15.00 | +7.1% | +14.0% | −34.1% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | $17.10 | +0.2% | −4.9% | −3.6% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | $22.32 | −2.8% | −3.7% | −28.6% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | $16.28 | +8.5% | +11.1% | +33.3% |
| 2 Oct 2024 | $18.43 | −2.5% | −2.0% | −20.7% |
| 3 Aug 2024 | $22.66 | −7.5% | −3.7% | −4.2% |
The 12 most recent. All 27 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 20% below the close 3 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reserve Rights | 39 | 54% | +4.2% | +5.6% | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 34 | 35% | −6.7% | −5.4% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 30 | 53% | +2.6% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 34 | 32% | −3.9% | −2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 24 | 63% | +5.5% | +5.4% | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 21 | 71% | +3.2% | +4.5% | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 24 | 67% | +2.6% | +2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 25 | 56% | +1.3% | +2.4% | Weak evidence |
20% drop in 3 days across all 94 coins
Other Arweave signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals