Terra Classic · LUNC/USDT · daily
What happens to Terra Classic after a 20% drop in 3 days?
Since 2022, Terra Classic has shown a 20% drop in 3 days 12 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 70% of the time, with a median move of +2.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LUNC is −1.6%.
No better than chance25
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 67% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | 60% | +1.2% | −2.4% to +3.4% | −0.1% | +1.3% | 54% | 23 |
| 3 days | 10 | 60% | +2.3% | −2.0% to +8.4% | −0.6% | +2.9% | 48% | 27 |
| 7 days | 10 | 70% | +2.3% | −2.4% to +6.7% | −1.6% | +3.9% | 67% | 25 |
| 14 days | 10 | 60% | +2.3% | −11.2% to +9.7% | −3.4% | +5.7% | 75% | 24 |
| 30 days | 10 | 20% | −7.3% | −16.4% to −5.2% | −4.7% | −2.6% | 95% | 18 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of LUNC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 22%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May 2026 | $0.00007890 | −1.3% | +0.7% | −6.7% |
| 12 Dec 2025 | $0.00004616 | −4.8% | −11.2% | −8.0% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.00003621 | +1.9% | +10.6% | +3.1% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | $0.00010304 | +6.5% | +6.8% | −5.7% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | $0.00012874 | −3.7% | +1.6% | −18.8% |
| 13 Apr 2024 | $0.00008990 | +14.5% | +22.3% | +16.6% |
| 16 Mar 2024 | $0.00014381 | +3.9% | +6.6% | −30.4% |
| 7 Dec 2023 | $0.00020046 | +1.4% | −10.0% | −39.9% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | $0.00006186 | +1.0% | +3.0% | −5.0% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | $0.00019063 | −2.7% | −3.4% | −9.0% |
| 24 Sep 2022 | $0.00022572 | open | open | open |
| 12 Sep 2022 | $0.00029932 | open | open | open |
The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 20% below the close 3 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reserve Rights | 39 | 54% | +4.2% | +5.6% | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 34 | 35% | −6.7% | −5.4% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 30 | 53% | +2.6% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 34 | 32% | −3.9% | −2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 24 | 63% | +5.5% | +5.4% | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 21 | 71% | +3.2% | +4.5% | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 24 | 67% | +2.6% | +2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 25 | 56% | +1.3% | +2.4% | Weak evidence |
20% drop in 3 days across all 94 coins
Other Terra Classic signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals