Livepeer · LPT/USDT · daily
What happens to Livepeer after a 20% drop in 3 days?
Since 2021, Livepeer has shown a 20% drop in 3 days 20 times. In the 19 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 63% of the time, with a median move of +3.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LPT is −1.7%.
Weak evidence45
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 47% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 19 | 42% | −2.2% | −7.7% to +3.4% | −0.3% | −1.9% | 31% | 19 |
| 3 days | 19 | 58% | +2.4% | −5.1% to +7.7% | −0.8% | +3.1% | 47% | 19 |
| 7 days | 19 | 63% | +3.8% | −5.1% to +8.2% | −1.7% | +5.6% | 47% | 45 |
| 14 days | 19 | 58% | +3.7% | −7.5% to +17.5% | −3.3% | +6.9% | 62% | 43 |
| 30 days | 19 | 42% | −4.6% | −19.1% to +13.3% | −7.2% | +2.6% | 95% | 37 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of LPT over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 8.0%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 11 the gap over 7 days was +5.6%, and in the later 8 it was +5.6%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | $4.47 | +3.7% | +9.0% | +19.9% |
| 2 Jun 2025 | $8.45 | −6.9% | −4.3% | −25.3% |
| 3 Feb 2025 | $9.06 | −9.3% | −11.0% | −30.3% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | $12.37 | +7.6% | +42.7% | +10.8% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | $17.08 | −9.2% | −4.9% | −21.0% |
| 4 Aug 2024 | $10.85 | −8.5% | +2.6% | +7.7% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | $12.82 | −4.6% | +5.2% | −8.8% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | $12.28 | −10.8% | +5.6% | +46.1% |
| 10 Aug 2023 | $4.68 | +32.7% | +42.1% | +35.7% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | $3.76 | −0.8% | +5.6% | +15.7% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $7.14 | +12.6% | +0.1% | +1.4% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | $9.82 | +1.7% | +7.3% | −11.6% |
The 12 most recent. All 20 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 20% below the close 3 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reserve Rights | 39 | 54% | +4.2% | +5.6% | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 34 | 35% | −6.7% | −5.4% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 30 | 53% | +2.6% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 34 | 32% | −3.9% | −2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 24 | 63% | +5.5% | +5.4% | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 21 | 71% | +3.2% | +4.5% | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 24 | 67% | +2.6% | +2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 25 | 56% | +1.3% | +2.4% | Weak evidence |
20% drop in 3 days across all 94 coins
Other Livepeer signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals