10% jump in a day: does it work in crypto?
A double-digit gain in one day pulls in momentum buyers and fear of missing out. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 5,369 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence11 of 940 lean up · 11 lean down
No better than chance36 of 94coins
Scored cases5,369since 2017
The rule. Daily close at least 10% above the previous close.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JUST | 35 | 29% | −8.7% | +0.6% | −9.4% | 1.9% | 98 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 47 | 32% | −8.1% | −1.5% | −6.6% | 5.1% | 98 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 35 | 20% | −9.3% | −0.9% | −8.5% | 1.9% | 98 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Dogecoin | 62 | 29% | −5.6% | −1.0% | −4.6% | 3.1% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 30 | 17% | −8.4% | −0.5% | −7.9% | 1.9% | 95 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 TRON | 46 | 46% | −2.7% | +0.7% | −3.4% | 7.6% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Shiba Inu | 44 | 23% | −6.4% | −1.5% | −4.9% | 8.6% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 69 | 29% | −7.4% | −1.6% | −5.8% | 7.6% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Polkadot | 47 | 43% | −6.6% | −1.0% | −5.6% | 11% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 DODO | 72 | 35% | −5.9% | −0.8% | −5.1% | 11% | 83 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Audius | 58 | 36% | −5.8% | −1.2% | −4.6% | 12% | 81 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Kava | 59 | 56% | +3.5% | −0.6% | +4.0% | 25% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 43 | 53% | +2.3% | −2.5% | +4.8% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 49 | 33% | −5.8% | −1.7% | −4.0% | 38% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 57 | 40% | −3.4% | −0.8% | −2.6% | 34% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 47 | 43% | −2.5% | −0.2% | −2.3% | 56% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 67 | 36% | −3.8% | −0.9% | −3.0% | 42% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 46 | 43% | −4.3% | −1.3% | −3.0% | 56% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 33 | 27% | −5.7% | −2.2% | −3.5% | 29% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 62 | 37% | −4.7% | −1.7% | −2.9% | 52% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 58 | 36% | −3.8% | −1.3% | −2.5% | 52% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 41 | 39% | −2.2% | −0.4% | −1.8% | 58% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 71 | 55% | +2.2% | −0.3% | +2.5% | 59% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 83 | 59% | +2.7% | +0.1% | +2.6% | 53% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 81 | 41% | −3.4% | −0.7% | −2.7% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 38 | 29% | −4.5% | −1.7% | −2.8% | 66% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 79 | 39% | −2.8% | −0.6% | −2.2% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 54 | 52% | +0.4% | −1.1% | +1.5% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 51 | 41% | −4.0% | −1.4% | −2.6% | 69% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 114 | 55% | +1.7% | −1.2% | +2.9% | 42% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 81 | 56% | +1.9% | −0.6% | +2.5% | 56% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 34 | 32% | −5.8% | −2.0% | −3.9% | 50% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 58 | 41% | −1.9% | −0.1% | −1.7% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 49 | 39% | −4.0% | −1.7% | −2.3% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 67 | 39% | −3.8% | −1.8% | −2.1% | 70% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 51 | 37% | −2.3% | −0.6% | −1.7% | 75% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 54 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.7% | +2.0% | 78% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 34 | 62% | +2.3% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 59% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 87 | 54% | +1.2% | −0.6% | +1.8% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 62 | 42% | −2.7% | −1.2% | −1.6% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 28 | 36% | −5.2% | −1.6% | −3.6% | 45% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 56 | 41% | −4.6% | −3.0% | −1.7% | 80% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 48 | 42% | −2.6% | −1.1% | −1.5% | 80% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 64 | 42% | −2.0% | −1.0% | −1.0% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 87 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.5% | +1.1% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 74 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.0% | −1.0% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 35 | 40% | −3.2% | −1.5% | −1.7% | 84% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 60 | 53% | +0.3% | −0.1% | +0.3% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 97 | 44% | −1.0% | −0.1% | −0.9% | 87% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 86 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.3% | +0.7% | 91% | 46 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 43 | 37% | −2.2% | −1.9% | −0.3% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 87 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 49 | 43% | −1.9% | −1.3% | −0.6% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 51 | 45% | −1.0% | −1.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 11 | 27% | −4.7% | −0.3% | −4.4% | 35% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 35 | 49% | −1.3% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 94% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 32 | 47% | −0.9% | −0.2% | −0.7% | 92% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 31 | 52% | 0.0% | −0.5% | +0.5% | 97% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 45 | 53% | +5.6% | −0.3% | +5.9% | 29% | 29 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 45 | 58% | +2.2% | −1.4% | +3.6% | 52% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 40 | 53% | +1.4% | −1.5% | +2.9% | 62% | 26 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 41 | 51% | +1.7% | −0.8% | +2.5% | 56% | 26 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 43 | 35% | −4.5% | −1.9% | −2.6% | 71% | 25 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 66 | 44% | −3.6% | −1.3% | −2.3% | 68% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 70 | 44% | −3.1% | −1.2% | −1.9% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 48 | 40% | −2.2% | −0.4% | −1.8% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 53 | 55% | +1.5% | +0.5% | +1.0% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 92 | 51% | +0.4% | −1.3% | +1.7% | 72% | 23 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 49 | 49% | −1.6% | −0.3% | −1.3% | 80% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 91 | 42% | −2.0% | −0.4% | −1.6% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 64 | 47% | −0.6% | +0.3% | −0.9% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 77 | 52% | +0.3% | −0.8% | +1.2% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 77 | 49% | −0.7% | +0.1% | −0.9% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 53 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.2% | +1.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 77 | 44% | −2.0% | −0.7% | −1.3% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 85 | 53% | +0.4% | −0.8% | +1.2% | 76% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 62 | 47% | −0.2% | −1.4% | +1.2% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 31 | 55% | +1.0% | −1.7% | +2.7% | 70% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 59 | 51% | +0.2% | −0.5% | +0.7% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 68 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.9% | −0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 88 | 48% | −0.9% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 61 | 44% | −1.6% | −1.2% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 65 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.8% | −0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 56 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.7% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 64 | 47% | −0.1% | −0.2% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 65 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 0.0% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 48 | 44% | −2.7% | −2.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 39 | 33% | −2.9% | −2.7% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 71 | 46% | −1.4% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 62 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 88 | 47% | −1.2% | −1.3% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 40 | 40% | −3.5% | −3.4% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 33 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 24 | 46% | −1.3% | −1.6% | +0.3% | 98% | 13 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.