Convex Finance · CVX/USDT · daily
What happens to Convex Finance after a 10% daily jump?
Since 2021, Convex Finance has shown a 10% daily jump 51 times. In the 49 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 33% of the time, with a median move of −5.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CVX is −1.7%.
Weak evidence53
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 38% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 49 | 41% | −1.8% | −5.0% to +2.7% | −0.2% | −1.6% | 15% | 72 |
| 3 days | 49 | 41% | −2.1% | −9.9% to +6.1% | −0.6% | −1.5% | 57% | 50 |
| 7 days | 49 | 33% | −5.8% | −15.7% to +4.5% | −1.7% | −4.0% | 38% | 53 |
| 14 days | 49 | 41% | −6.0% | −18.0% to +8.1% | −3.7% | −2.3% | 84% | 23 |
| 30 days | 48 | 27% | −15.5% | −28.6% to +4.1% | −7.0% | −8.5% | 45% | 53 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of CVX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 5.1%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 29 the gap over 7 days was −2.5%, and in the later 20 it was −6.9%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | $2.40 | +9.2% | −3.5% | open |
| 21 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | +6.4% | +15.6% | +0.9% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | $1.42 | −5.0% | −11.1% | −13.4% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | $1.97 | +2.1% | +10.8% | −12.8% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | $1.92 | −8.9% | +2.5% | −13.3% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | $1.78 | +0.2% | +9.7% | +23.0% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | $2.38 | −12.8% | −16.1% | −22.5% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | $2.13 | −3.5% | −13.7% | −16.2% |
| 12 Oct 2025 | $2.56 | +11.6% | −7.0% | −20.4% |
| 18 Sep 2025 | $4.07 | −4.8% | −26.2% | −42.7% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | $4.82 | −0.9% | −7.0% | −17.9% |
| 10 Jul 2025 | $2.99 | +2.1% | +50.7% | +54.0% |
The 12 most recent. All 51 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily close at least 10% above the previous close. A double-digit gain in one day pulls in momentum buyers and fear of missing out.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JUST | 35 | 29% | −8.7% | −9.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 47 | 32% | −8.1% | −6.6% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 35 | 20% | −9.3% | −8.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Dogecoin | 62 | 29% | −5.6% | −4.6% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 30 | 17% | −8.4% | −7.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 TRON | 46 | 46% | −2.7% | −3.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Shiba Inu | 44 | 23% | −6.4% | −4.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 69 | 29% | −7.4% | −5.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
10% jump in a day across all 94 coins
Other Convex Finance signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals