Kava · KAVA/USDT · daily
What happens to Kava after a 10% daily jump?
Since 2019, Kava has shown a 10% daily jump 60 times. In the 59 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 56% of the time, with a median move of +3.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for KAVA is −0.6%.
Weak evidence53
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 25% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 59 | 59% | +1.1% | −3.9% to +7.2% | +0.1% | +1.0% | 24% | 54 |
| 3 days | 59 | 54% | +1.6% | −4.3% to +8.9% | −0.1% | +1.7% | 42% | 25 |
| 7 days | 59 | 56% | +3.5% | −7.3% to +14.5% | −0.6% | +4.0% | 25% | 53 |
| 14 days | 59 | 54% | +5.4% | −11.7% to +26.1% | −1.7% | +7.1% | 14% | 52 |
| 30 days | 59 | 46% | −5.5% | −18.3% to +30.9% | −4.8% | −0.7% | 97% | 21 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of KAVA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 1.7%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 35 the gap over 7 days was +7.6%, and in the later 24 it was +0.2%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Sep 2026 | $0.05850 | +1.3% | +11.4% | +14.9% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | $0.05640 | −5.1% | +19.7% | −5.6% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | $0.1286 | +8.3% | +11.4% | −18.8% |
| 3 Feb 2025 | $0.5322 | −9.5% | −12.9% | −15.6% |
| 3 Jan 2025 | $0.5242 | +5.4% | −4.4% | −17.8% |
| 3 Dec 2024 | $0.6952 | +1.8% | −22.5% | −31.6% |
| 19 Sep 2024 | $0.3897 | −2.8% | −0.7% | −5.5% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | $0.3280 | +0.5% | −2.2% | −14.5% |
| 20 Mar 2024 | $0.9514 | +0.1% | +3.3% | −29.8% |
| 24 Jun 2023 | $1.04 | +8.2% | −7.8% | −17.0% |
| 10 May 2023 | $0.8870 | −3.2% | +6.1% | +5.4% |
| 12 Mar 2023 | $0.9910 | +9.5% | 0.0% | −6.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 60 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily close at least 10% above the previous close. A double-digit gain in one day pulls in momentum buyers and fear of missing out.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JUST | 35 | 29% | −8.7% | −9.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 47 | 32% | −8.1% | −6.6% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 35 | 20% | −9.3% | −8.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Dogecoin | 62 | 29% | −5.6% | −4.6% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 30 | 17% | −8.4% | −7.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 TRON | 46 | 46% | −2.7% | −3.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Shiba Inu | 44 | 23% | −6.4% | −4.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 69 | 29% | −7.4% | −5.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
10% jump in a day across all 94 coins
Other Kava signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals