What happens to ApeCoin after a 10% daily jump?

Since 2022, ApeCoin has shown a 10% daily jump 41 times. In the 38 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 29% of the time, with a median move of −4.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for APE is −1.7%.

Weak evidence50

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 66% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 202241last on 2 Oct 2026

Higher after 7 days29%ordinary: 43%

Median 7-day move−4.5%ordinary: −1.7%

Could be luck66%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−42% / +22%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary APE drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 40 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	38	42%	−1.1%	−5.3% to +2.6%	−0.2%	−0.9%	49%	49
3 days	38	37%	−1.6%	−6.9% to +4.1%	−0.6%	−0.9%	76%	47
7 days	38	29%	−4.5%	−10.1% to +0.3%	−1.7%	−2.8%	66%	50
14 days	38	42%	−5.3%	−14.4% to +10.1%	−4.6%	−0.7%	96%	20
30 days	38	39%	−9.1%	−32.0% to +8.2%	−9.6%	+0.5%	98%	19

“Ordinary median” is the median move of APE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 21%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−12.6%ordinary APE: −8.8%

1 case in 4 dipped past−18.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way63%ordinary: 44%

Typical best point+8.3%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−4.8%ordinary: −2.0%

Ahead after costs26%ordinary: 43%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 22 the gap over 7 days was −1.8%, and in the later 16 it was −4.5%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
2 Oct 2026	$0.1656	−1.2%	−8.2%	−32.7%
8 Jul 2026	$0.1623	+3.6%	−5.6%	−18.7%
11 Jun 2026	$0.1313	−2.0%	+1.6%	+18.6%
29 May 2026	$0.1413	−1.8%	−11.0%	−4.0%
1 May 2026	$0.1794	−1.3%	−8.2%	−22.4%
24 Apr 2026	$0.1810	−14.3%	−0.9%	−25.6%
6 Feb 2026	$0.1324	−0.5%	−1.1%	−29.5%
13 Jan 2026	$0.2367	−5.5%	−20.6%	−46.0%
7 Nov 2025	$0.4138	−4.4%	−15.7%	−45.3%
23 Oct 2025	$0.4329	+10.9%	−9.0%	−35.5%
12 Oct 2025	$0.4287	+4.7%	−6.7%	−12.6%
18 May 2025	$0.6804	−4.5%	−4.6%	−4.4%

The 12 most recent. All 41 are in the open data file.

The rule

Daily close at least 10% above the previous close. A double-digit gain in one day pulls in momentum buyers and fear of missing out.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
JUST	35	29%	−8.7%	−9.4%	Strong evidence · leans down
Phala Network	47	32%	−8.1%	−6.6%	Strong evidence · leans down
Radworks	35	20%	−9.3%	−8.5%	Strong evidence · leans down
Dogecoin	62	29%	−5.6%	−4.6%	Strong evidence · leans down
Request	30	17%	−8.4%	−7.9%	Strong evidence · leans down
TRON	46	46%	−2.7%	−3.4%	Strong evidence · leans down
Shiba Inu	44	23%	−6.4%	−4.9%	Strong evidence · leans down
Conflux	69	29%	−7.4%	−5.8%	Strong evidence · leans down

10% jump in a day across all 94 coins

Other ApeCoin signals

Bitcoin drops 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 35 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 33 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 76 cases 7% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 80 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 44 cases 5% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 112 cases

Full ApeCoin record

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