Request signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily REQ candle since 20 Aug 2021 (1,913 days). 6 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 3 signals did no better than picking days at random.
REQ price · last close$0.0395014 Nov 2026 close: $0.03950 (7d −18.9%)
RSI (14)20.5under 30
Volume vs 30-day average5.63×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume55.3%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−96%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 30 | 17% | −8.4% | −0.5% | 1.9% | 95 | Strong evidence · leans down | 25 Jul 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 22 | 23% | −7.4% | −0.5% | 4.6% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans down | 26 Jul 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 16 | 19% | −10.0% | −0.5% | 4.0% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans down | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 14 | 7% | −8.8% | −0.5% | 7.6% | 82 | Strong evidence · leans down | 26 Jul 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 23 | 61% | +4.8% | −0.5% | 15% | 71 | Strong evidence · leans up | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 46 | 33% | −3.8% | −0.5% | 19% | 67 | Some evidence · leans down | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 19 | 32% | −5.0% | −0.5% | 32% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 49 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 17 | 65% | +2.7% | −0.5% | 58% | 43 | Weak evidence | 1 Mar 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 20 | 55% | +2.1% | −0.5% | 63% | 43 | Weak evidence | 15 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 28 | 39% | −1.5% | −0.5% | 86% | 42 | Weak evidence | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 29 | 41% | −1.4% | −0.5% | 88% | 42 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 18 | 39% | −1.9% | −0.5% | 84% | 38 | Weak evidence | 6 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 50 | 46% | −0.4% | −0.5% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 25 | 44% | −0.3% | −0.5% | 98% | 13 | No better than chance | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 16 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.5% | 94% | 10 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Golden cross | 5 | 80% | +3.5% | −0.5% | 31% | Too few cases | 5 May 2025 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 60% | +2.0% | −0.5% | 51% | Too few cases | 1 Oct 2025 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 8 | 25% | −19.2% | −0.5% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | 13 May 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% rise in 3 days | 58 | 31% | −5.3% | −0.5% | 3.1% | 99 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 21 | 10% | −9.3% | −0.5% | 3.1% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans down | 26 May 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 20 | 10% | −14.7% | −0.5% | 1.9% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down | 25 Jul 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 17 | 12% | −18.4% | −0.5% | 1.9% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down | 25 Jul 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 12 | 0% | −19.2% | −0.5% | 1.9% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans down | 18 Apr 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 49 | 33% | −4.3% | −0.5% | 11% | 85 | Strong evidence · leans down | 26 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 23 | 17% | −6.4% | −0.5% | 8.6% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans down | 29 May 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 15 | 33% | −9.0% | −0.5% | 7.0% | 83 | Strong evidence · leans down | 15 May 2025 |
| 7% drop in a day | 58 | 45% | −3.4% | −0.5% | 22% | 59 | Some evidence · leans down | 26 Jul 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 57 | 42% | −3.1% | −0.5% | 31% | 53 | Weak evidence | 28 Jul 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 42 | 62% | +1.5% | −0.5% | 56% | 51 | Weak evidence | 1 Aug 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 90 | 40% | −2.3% | −0.5% | 38% | 50 | Weak evidence | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 12 | 33% | −6.2% | −0.5% | 32% | 46 | Weak evidence | 29 May 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 11 | 27% | −7.0% | −0.5% | 31% | 45 | Weak evidence | 27 May 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 11 | 64% | +3.7% | −0.5% | 54% | 43 | Weak evidence | 23 Feb 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 98 | 45% | −1.4% | −0.5% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance | 6 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 24 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.5% | 96% | 13 | No better than chance | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 5 | 80% | +4.7% | −0.5% | 20% | Too few cases | 8 Apr 2025 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 1 | 100% | +15.8% | −0.5% | – | Too few cases | 12 May 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 4 | 0% | −23.0% | −0.5% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | 26 Mar 2024 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 4 | 25% | −16.9% | −0.5% | 0.4% | Too few cases | 18 Dec 2021 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 47 | 38% | −4.9% | −0.5% | 5.1% | 73 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 52 | 62% | +1.9% | −0.5% | 39% | 52 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 6 | 17% | −7.2% | −0.5% | 7.5% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 25% | −3.7% | −0.5% | 29% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.04690 | open |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.04890 | −6.7% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.05180 | −0.4% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $0.05180 | −0.4% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.05290 | −3.4% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.