Convex Finance signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily CVX candle since 23 Dec 2021 (1,788 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 8 signals did no better than picking days at random.
CVX price · last close$1.4514 Nov 2026 close: $1.45 (7d −20.0%)
RSI (14)28under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.02×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume52.0%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI rises above 70 | 18 | 61% | +12.2% | −1.7% | 2.8% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans up | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 49 | 33% | −5.8% | −1.7% | 38% | 53 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 42 | 40% | −5.4% | −1.7% | 49% | 52 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 25 | 24% | −8.6% | −1.7% | 25% | 50 | Weak evidence | 6 Jul 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 28 | 57% | +2.7% | −1.7% | 49% | 47 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 27 | 56% | +1.5% | −1.7% | 67% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 26 | 38% | −3.8% | −1.7% | 80% | 42 | Weak evidence | 29 May 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 17 | 59% | +1.6% | −1.7% | 74% | 40 | Weak evidence | 5 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 18 | 44% | −2.9% | −1.7% | 93% | 36 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 11 | 55% | +10.6% | −1.7% | 20% | 31 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 10 | 70% | +4.3% | −1.7% | 60% | 26 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 40 | 43% | −2.7% | −1.7% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 15 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 30 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.7% | 88% | 18 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 34 | 41% | −2.4% | −1.7% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 14 | 50% | +2.4% | −1.7% | 69% | 15 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 23 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.7% | 83% | 15 | No better than chance | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 20 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.7% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance | 7 May 2026 |
| Golden cross | 6 | 33% | −2.8% | −1.7% | 83% | Too few cases | 3 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 60% | +1.0% | −1.7% | 62% | Too few cases | 21 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 7 days | 57 | 54% | +1.5% | −1.7% | 46% | 51 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 83 | 36% | −4.2% | −1.7% | 49% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 45 | 36% | −4.4% | −1.7% | 61% | 50 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 34 | 59% | +2.4% | −1.7% | 48% | 50 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 85 | 39% | −3.7% | −1.7% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 126 | 40% | −3.6% | −1.7% | 53% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 12 | 75% | +7.2% | −1.7% | 33% | 46 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 12 | 17% | −10.7% | −1.7% | 32% | 46 | Weak evidence | 4 Aug 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 13 | 31% | −8.5% | −1.7% | 48% | 44 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 28 | 36% | −4.4% | −1.7% | 72% | 44 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 22 | 32% | −4.4% | −1.7% | 76% | 41 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2025 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 84 | 36% | −2.2% | −1.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 126 | 44% | −2.1% | −1.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 15 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 45 | 42% | −2.0% | −1.7% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 24 Jun 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 95 | 44% | −1.8% | −1.7% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 17 | 47% | −6.3% | −1.7% | 61% | 17 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 30 | 43% | −2.6% | −1.7% | 93% | 17 | No better than chance | 4 Sep 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 12 | 42% | −6.7% | −1.7% | 64% | 15 | No better than chance | 16 Feb 2025 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 21 | 48% | −3.4% | −1.7% | 88% | 14 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 17 | 41% | −3.4% | −1.7% | 90% | 12 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 7 | 57% | +18.8% | −1.7% | 0.2% | Too few cases | 26 Aug 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 38 | 26% | −6.7% | −1.7% | 32% | 53 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 48 | 46% | −2.1% | −1.7% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 5 | 60% | +5.4% | −1.7% | 24% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 38% | −5.4% | −1.7% | 43% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.88 | −8.1% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $2.01 | −9.8% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Breakout to a 90-day high | $2.62 | −9.6% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $2.62 | −9.6% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $2.40 | −3.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.