Convex Finance · CVX/USDT · daily
What happens to Convex Finance after a 10% rise in 3 days?
Since 2021, Convex Finance has shown a 10% rise in 3 days 87 times. In the 85 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 39% of the time, with a median move of −3.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CVX is −1.7%.
Weak evidence49
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 61% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 85 | 49% | −0.1% | −3.9% to +3.9% | −0.2% | +0.2% | 87% | 21 |
| 3 days | 85 | 39% | −1.3% | −6.3% to +4.4% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 75% | 47 |
| 7 days | 85 | 39% | −3.7% | −12.8% to +10.4% | −1.7% | −2.0% | 61% | 49 |
| 14 days | 85 | 42% | −3.7% | −17.1% to +10.3% | −3.7% | +0.1% | 100% | 20 |
| 30 days | 84 | 37% | −9.8% | −23.7% to +21.1% | −7.0% | −2.8% | 84% | 48 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of CVX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 17%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 51 the gap over 7 days was −1.0%, and in the later 34 it was −4.8%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | $2.40 | +9.2% | −3.5% | open |
| 4 Oct 2026 | $2.30 | −1.7% | −7.4% | −18.5% |
| 28 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | −2.4% | −3.7% | −2.2% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | +6.4% | +15.6% | +0.9% |
| 11 Aug 2026 | $1.69 | +3.9% | −9.8% | +21.6% |
| 4 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | +3.5% | +19.3% | +63.9% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | −3.9% | −7.3% | +44.5% |
| 3 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | +1.2% | +3.6% | +8.1% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | $1.42 | −5.0% | −11.1% | −13.4% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | $1.97 | +2.1% | +10.8% | −12.8% |
| 8 Feb 2026 | $1.85 | +5.2% | +3.9% | +22.8% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | $2.38 | −12.8% | −16.1% | −22.5% |
The 12 most recent. All 87 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 10% above the close 3 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 61 | 25% | −6.3% | −5.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 58 | 31% | −5.3% | −4.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 DODO | 104 | 39% | −4.4% | −3.6% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Shiba Inu | 65 | 32% | −4.6% | −3.1% | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 94 | 39% | −4.2% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 82 | 37% | −4.2% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 59 | 34% | −6.2% | −4.2% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 92 | 36% | −3.2% | −2.2% | Weak evidence |
10% rise in 3 days across all 94 coins
Other Convex Finance signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals