Convex Finance · CVX/USDT · daily
What happens to Convex Finance after a 100% rise in 30 days?
Since 2021, Convex Finance has shown a 100% rise in 30 days 12 times. In the 12 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 17% of the time, with a median move of −10.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CVX is −1.7%.
Weak evidence46
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 32% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 12 | 17% | −3.0% | −5.5% to −2.1% | −0.2% | −2.7% | 24% | 47 |
| 3 days | 12 | 25% | −0.8% | −8.5% to 0.0% | −0.6% | −0.3% | 97% | 32 |
| 7 days | 12 | 17% | −10.7% | −15.8% to −5.7% | −1.7% | −9.0% | 32% | 46 |
| 14 days | 12 | 25% | −9.3% | −20.6% to +0.6% | −3.7% | −5.6% | 78% | 39 |
| 30 days | 12 | 8% | −22.3% | −33.4% to −16.6% | −7.0% | −15.3% | 53% | 45 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of CVX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 3.1%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was −9.9%, and in the later 5 it was −8.6%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2025 | $4.55 | −7.8% | −7.1% | −19.3% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | $4.82 | −0.9% | −7.0% | −17.9% |
| 8 May 2025 | $3.46 | −2.5% | −10.3% | −21.4% |
| 15 Dec 2024 | $6.06 | +1.5% | −34.5% | −28.9% |
| 8 Dec 2024 | $6.82 | −15.1% | −11.1% | −32.5% |
| 1 Dec 2024 | $5.14 | −4.8% | +32.6% | −12.4% |
| 24 Nov 2024 | $3.18 | −2.8% | +61.4% | +54.8% |
| 1 Feb 2023 | $6.52 | +2.2% | −1.9% | −10.5% |
| 28 Jul 2022 | $7.98 | −2.8% | −15.7% | −36.1% |
| 18 Jul 2022 | $7.70 | −3.1% | −16.2% | −23.1% |
| 10 Apr 2022 | $34.37 | −13.8% | −24.2% | −39.0% |
| 3 Apr 2022 | $38.88 | −4.6% | −11.6% | −42.2% |
The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 100% above the close 30 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fetch.ai | 33 | 70% | +10.3% | +11.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Axie Infinity | 26 | 65% | +8.9% | +10.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Solana | 23 | 74% | +14.2% | +14.5% | Some evidence · leans up |
 THORChain | 22 | 68% | +8.7% | +9.1% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Injective | 28 | 57% | +6.8% | +6.9% | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 23 | 48% | −3.3% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 21 | 48% | −2.5% | −1.8% | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 22 | 36% | −2.3% | −1.6% | Weak evidence |
100% rise in 30 days across all 94 coins
Other Convex Finance signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals