Convex Finance · CVX/USDT · daily
What happens to Convex Finance after a volume spike on a red day?
Since 2021, Convex Finance has shown a volume spike on a red day 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 70% of the time, with a median move of +4.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CVX is −1.7%.
No better than chance26
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 60% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | 60% | +1.1% | −1.0% to +2.8% | −0.2% | +1.4% | 62% | 22 |
| 3 days | 10 | 60% | +1.1% | −6.3% to +31.0% | −0.6% | +1.6% | 81% | 20 |
| 7 days | 10 | 70% | +4.3% | −4.0% to +15.5% | −1.7% | +6.1% | 60% | 26 |
| 14 days | 10 | 60% | +5.8% | −6.5% to +22.6% | −3.7% | +9.6% | 55% | 28 |
| 30 days | 10 | 40% | −5.4% | −9.7% to +11.6% | −7.0% | +1.6% | 97% | 16 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of CVX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 16%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | $2.19 | −1.1% | +1.9% | −8.3% |
| 12 May 2026 | $1.92 | −3.5% | −11.8% | −26.2% |
| 4 Jan 2026 | $2.08 | +3.4% | −5.6% | −10.2% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $2.15 | +1.2% | +6.8% | −3.6% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | $4.50 | −7.4% | +7.4% | −7.2% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | $4.89 | +10.7% | +18.3% | 0.0% |
| 20 Nov 2024 | $2.49 | +10.7% | +27.5% | +71.0% |
| 13 Jun 2024 | $1.97 | +1.3% | +72.2% | +15.5% |
| 31 Jul 2023 | $3.23 | +1.1% | +0.8% | −11.1% |
| 4 Mar 2022 | $17.61 | −0.7% | −9.1% | +120.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily volume at least 3× its previous 30-day average, and the day closes below its open. A surge of volume on a down day is read two opposite ways: as panic that marks a low, or as distribution before more selling.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Harmony | 25 | 68% | +11.6% | +12.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 XRP | 26 | 58% | +5.2% | +5.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Theta Network | 22 | 64% | +9.1% | +9.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin | 20 | 60% | +5.1% | +4.7% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Neo | 40 | 33% | −5.2% | −4.6% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Ethereum Classic | 37 | 54% | +1.7% | +2.7% | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 24 | 29% | −6.8% | −6.1% | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 33 | 61% | +3.1% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
Volume spike on a red day across all 94 coins
Other Convex Finance signals
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