Convex Finance · CVX/USDT · daily
What happens to Convex Finance after RSI rising above 70?
Since 2021, Convex Finance has shown RSI rising above 70 18 times. In the 18 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 61% of the time, with a median move of +12.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CVX is −1.7%.
Strong evidence · leans up89
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 2.8% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is upward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 18 | 56% | +3.5% | −4.4% to +7.8% | −0.2% | +3.8% | 3.1% | 89 |
| 3 days | 18 | 56% | +3.9% | −3.5% to +10.6% | −0.6% | +4.5% | 25% | 47 |
| 7 days | 18 | 61% | +12.2% | −7.5% to +18.2% | −1.7% | +13.9% | 2.8% | 89 |
| 14 days | 18 | 72% | +7.2% | −8.4% to +30.2% | −3.7% | +10.9% | 27% | 49 |
| 30 days | 18 | 50% | −2.3% | −18.5% to +27.4% | −7.0% | +4.7% | 90% | 38 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of CVX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: under 0.1%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 10 the gap over 7 days was +16.8%, and in the later 8 it was +0.8%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | +6.4% | +15.6% | +0.9% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | +7.7% | +1.6% | +37.7% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | $2.38 | −12.8% | −16.1% | −22.5% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | $4.82 | −0.9% | −7.0% | −17.9% |
| 13 Jul 2025 | $3.53 | +10.3% | +18.8% | +27.7% |
| 8 May 2025 | $3.46 | −2.5% | −10.3% | −21.4% |
| 1 May 2025 | $3.03 | +4.1% | +14.1% | −9.6% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | $2.84 | −1.1% | −3.4% | +30.0% |
| 30 Nov 2024 | $3.74 | +37.6% | +79.7% | +26.4% |
| 19 Nov 2024 | $2.85 | −12.6% | +13.7% | +55.2% |
| 18 Jun 2024 | $3.70 | +4.8% | −21.6% | −34.6% |
| 6 Mar 2024 | $5.48 | −5.1% | −7.7% | −35.2% |
The 12 most recent. All 18 are in the open data file.
The rule
14-day RSI closes above 70 after being at or below it the day before. An RSI reading over 70 is the most widely quoted "overbought" signal in technical analysis.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeChain | 39 | 72% | +11.3% | +12.1% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 COTI | 33 | 58% | +8.6% | +9.8% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Curve DAO | 21 | 57% | +12.6% | +13.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Hedera | 35 | 54% | +4.0% | +5.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Phala Network | 24 | 33% | −8.4% | −6.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 The Sandbox | 26 | 58% | +5.6% | +6.9% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 43 | 63% | +3.6% | +4.4% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 38 | 55% | +2.0% | +3.0% | Weak evidence |
RSI rises above 70 across all 94 coins
Other Convex Finance signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals