AVA (Travala) · AVA/USDT · daily
What happens to AVA (Travala) after a 30% drop in 7 days?
Since 2020, AVA (Travala) has shown a 30% drop in 7 days 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 90% of the time, with a median move of +11.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AVA is −0.4%.
Some evidence · leans up55
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 12% of the time, though there are too few cases to split the history and check it twice. The lean is upward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | 60% | +3.8% | −3.6% to +5.8% | 0.0% | +3.8% | 7.4% | 65 |
| 3 days | 10 | 50% | +1.6% | −4.5% to +11.5% | −0.1% | +1.8% | 77% | 21 |
| 7 days | 10 | 90% | +11.6% | +5.7% to +18.5% | −0.4% | +12.1% | 12% | 55 |
| 14 days | 10 | 80% | +13.1% | +4.0% to +19.0% | −1.5% | +14.6% | 25% | 30 |
| 30 days | 10 | 60% | +3.6% | −16.7% to +15.6% | −4.0% | +7.6% | 83% | 23 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AVA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.4%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.3180 | +6.4% | +14.9% | +17.5% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | $0.5782 | +4.2% | +20.8% | +21.0% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | $1.44 | −5.4% | −11.9% | −29.2% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $0.5100 | +4.3% | +6.3% | +0.6% |
| 11 May 2022 | $0.6360 | −6.9% | +10.5% | +6.6% |
| 23 Feb 2022 | $1.12 | −4.4% | +25.3% | +38.5% |
| 22 Jan 2022 | $1.05 | +6.3% | +12.8% | +9.7% |
| 23 Jun 2021 | $2.21 | +3.4% | +5.5% | −19.8% |
| 19 May 2021 | $3.04 | +16.4% | +3.9% | −7.5% |
| 22 Apr 2021 | $4.24 | −1.4% | +19.7% | −29.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 30% below the close 7 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Harmony | 23 | 70% | +11.6% | +12.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Tellor | 22 | 77% | +9.1% | +9.5% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Fetch.ai | 26 | 65% | +7.6% | +8.8% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Reserve Rights | 21 | 71% | +5.9% | +7.2% | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 22 | 68% | +5.3% | +5.9% | Weak evidence |
30% drop in 7 days across all 94 coins
Other AVA (Travala) signals
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See today's signals