AVA (Travala) · AVA/USDT · daily
What happens to AVA (Travala) after a 30% rise in 7 days?
Since 2020, AVA (Travala) has shown a 30% rise in 7 days 22 times. In the 22 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 32% of the time, with a median move of −9.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AVA is −0.4%.
Strong evidence · leans down84
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 8.4% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is downward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 22 | 9% | −3.9% | −7.9% to −1.9% | 0.0% | −3.8% | 0.5% | 91 |
| 3 days | 22 | 23% | −5.8% | −11.3% to −1.9% | −0.1% | −5.6% | 3.7% | 91 |
| 7 days | 22 | 32% | −9.1% | −12.3% to +6.7% | −0.4% | −8.7% | 8.4% | 84 |
| 14 days | 22 | 45% | −2.2% | −9.3% to +13.2% | −1.5% | −0.8% | 96% | 12 |
| 30 days | 21 | 52% | +7.4% | −21.0% to +47.4% | −4.0% | +11.4% | 48% | 22 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AVA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.2%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 13 the gap over 7 days was −8.0%, and in the later 9 it was −11.1%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | $0.3785 | −15.5% | +13.4% | open |
| 17 Sep 2026 | $0.2636 | −10.4% | −3.0% | +43.6% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | $0.2105 | −1.8% | −15.0% | −21.0% |
| 13 May 2025 | $0.7603 | −8.9% | −17.2% | −27.5% |
| 11 Mar 2025 | $0.7292 | −2.2% | −11.5% | −30.6% |
| 12 Dec 2024 | $2.65 | −7.3% | −45.6% | −57.8% |
| 27 Nov 2024 | $0.5969 | −1.1% | +24.0% | +114.9% |
| 4 Mar 2024 | $0.8401 | −5.2% | +9.1% | −4.8% |
| 31 Jul 2022 | $1.05 | −4.1% | −22.2% | −18.2% |
| 19 Jul 2022 | $0.6570 | −2.9% | −9.7% | +21.3% |
| 25 Jun 2022 | $0.6300 | −3.7% | −7.5% | −2.9% |
| 3 Mar 2022 | $1.40 | −5.8% | −12.6% | +21.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 22 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 30% above the close 7 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DODO | 24 | 29% | −12.9% | −12.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Stellar | 28 | 61% | +5.7% | +6.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Audius | 33 | 33% | −8.2% | −7.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 29 | 34% | −10.3% | −8.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Tellor | 42 | 40% | −8.1% | −7.7% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Livepeer | 27 | 33% | −9.0% | −7.2% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Horizen | 35 | 37% | −7.3% | −6.6% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Reserve Rights | 38 | 39% | −7.8% | −6.5% | Weak evidence |
30% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins
Other AVA (Travala) signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals