After a 30% drop in 7 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 983 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence6 of 496 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance14 of 49coins
Scored cases983since 2017
The rule. Close at least 30% below the close 7 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Harmony | 23 | 70% | +11.6% | −1.3% | +12.9% | 5.8% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Ravencoin | 15 | 80% | +7.9% | −1.3% | +9.3% | 14% | 69 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Tellor | 22 | 77% | +9.1% | −0.4% | +9.5% | 17% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up |
 IOTA | 13 | 77% | +9.4% | −0.8% | +10.2% | 15% | 66 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Fetch.ai | 26 | 65% | +7.6% | −1.2% | +8.8% | 22% | 57 | Some evidence · leans up |
 AVA (Travala) | 10 | 90% | +11.6% | −0.4% | +12.1% | 12% | 55 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Algorand | 13 | 62% | +8.9% | −1.0% | +9.9% | 22% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 16 | 81% | +7.8% | −0.6% | +8.4% | 29% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 15 | 67% | +8.3% | −0.6% | +8.9% | 28% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 13 | 69% | +9.2% | −0.6% | +9.8% | 25% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 14 | 64% | +8.4% | −0.7% | +9.0% | 27% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 21 | 71% | +5.9% | −1.3% | +7.2% | 43% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 13 | 85% | +8.5% | +0.1% | +8.3% | 42% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 15 | 73% | +8.6% | −0.1% | +8.6% | 37% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 22 | 68% | +5.3% | −0.5% | +5.9% | 48% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 16 | 81% | +5.3% | −1.3% | +6.6% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 12 | 83% | +6.7% | −3.0% | +9.7% | 28% | 46 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 12 | 75% | +7.2% | −1.7% | +8.9% | 33% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 11 | 82% | +8.7% | −0.9% | +9.5% | 28% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 17 | 59% | +6.1% | −0.7% | +6.8% | 45% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 11 | 73% | +8.3% | −0.8% | +9.2% | 31% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 16 | 75% | +4.5% | −1.2% | +5.7% | 42% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 11 | 64% | +7.7% | −1.2% | +8.9% | 37% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 15 | 67% | +6.0% | −1.3% | +7.2% | 48% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 15 | 60% | +4.6% | −0.5% | +5.0% | 52% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 18 | 61% | +3.3% | −1.6% | +4.9% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 12 | 67% | +4.8% | −1.8% | +6.6% | 50% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 16 | 75% | +5.3% | −0.3% | +5.6% | 57% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 11 | 73% | +4.8% | −1.7% | +6.5% | 59% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 14 | 71% | +4.4% | −1.2% | +5.5% | 62% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 16 | 75% | +3.6% | −1.3% | +4.9% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 15 | 67% | +3.5% | −0.6% | +4.1% | 67% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 12 | 75% | +3.4% | −1.7% | +5.0% | 68% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 11 | 27% | −3.2% | −0.4% | −2.8% | 69% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 10 | 60% | +8.6% | −1.0% | +9.5% | 22% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 10 | 70% | +5.1% | −1.0% | +6.1% | 45% | 30 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 10 | 60% | +8.6% | −0.6% | +9.2% | 28% | 30 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 10 | 40% | −7.2% | −0.6% | −6.5% | 64% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 10 | 70% | +4.8% | −1.2% | +6.0% | 65% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 10 | 70% | +3.4% | −1.7% | +5.1% | 67% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 10 | 60% | +2.9% | −1.1% | +4.0% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 10 | 40% | −3.8% | −1.4% | −2.4% | 91% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 12 | 67% | +4.6% | −1.1% | +5.7% | 54% | 18 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 19 | 63% | +3.2% | −0.8% | +4.0% | 68% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 10 | 40% | −1.4% | −0.8% | −0.6% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 10 | 40% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 100% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 14 | 43% | −3.9% | −0.9% | −3.1% | 80% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 12 | 33% | −3.7% | −1.2% | −2.5% | 87% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 11 | 45% | −4.0% | −1.5% | −2.5% | 87% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 5 | 60% | +3.5% | +0.5% | +3.0% | 36% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum | 8 | 63% | +6.7% | +0.3% | +6.4% | 9.0% | Too few cases | |
 Solana | 8 | 88% | +9.1% | −0.3% | +9.4% | 7.1% | Too few cases | |
 BNB | 7 | 71% | +3.9% | +0.5% | +3.4% | 32% | Too few cases | |
 XRP | 9 | 67% | +10.2% | −0.8% | +11.0% | 0.4% | Too few cases | |
 Avalanche | 9 | 33% | −3.5% | −0.7% | −2.7% | 52% | Too few cases | |
 Chainlink | 9 | 78% | +9.9% | +0.1% | +9.8% | 3.7% | Too few cases | |
 TRON | 8 | 88% | +8.4% | +0.7% | +7.7% | 0.9% | Too few cases | |
 Polkadot | 6 | 67% | +1.6% | −1.0% | +2.6% | 60% | Too few cases | |
 Litecoin | 8 | 75% | +11.9% | −0.2% | +12.2% | 0.5% | Too few cases | |
 Bitcoin Cash | 7 | 57% | +2.6% | −0.2% | +2.8% | 48% | Too few cases | |
 Uniswap | 8 | 88% | +15.1% | −0.4% | +15.5% | 0.5% | Too few cases | |
 Stellar | 7 | 86% | +4.1% | −1.1% | +5.3% | 18% | Too few cases | |
 Aptos | 6 | 50% | −0.8% | −1.5% | +0.8% | 88% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 5 | 100% | +15.0% | −1.7% | +16.8% | 1.4% | Too few cases | |
 Optimism | 7 | 57% | +0.4% | −1.4% | +1.9% | 76% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 3 | 100% | +23.7% | −1.5% | +25.2% | 1.2% | Too few cases | |
 Aave | 9 | 56% | +4.8% | −0.1% | +4.9% | 34% | Too few cases | |
 Pepe | 5 | 60% | +12.1% | −1.4% | +13.5% | 7.2% | Too few cases | |
| Worldcoin | 9 | 33% | −2.5% | −2.7% | +0.3% | 94% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 3 | 67% | +0.5% | −1.3% | +1.8% | 72% | Too few cases | |
 Hedera | 8 | 75% | +7.7% | −1.2% | +8.8% | 4.6% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 2 | 100% | +6.5% | −2.7% | +9.1% | 37% | Too few cases | |
 Shiba Inu | 3 | 67% | +5.6% | −1.5% | +7.0% | 24% | Too few cases | |
 PancakeSwap | 8 | 88% | +9.4% | −0.8% | +10.2% | 2.1% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 4 | 100% | +16.0% | −2.2% | +18.3% | 3.0% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 7 | 71% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.4% | 95% | Too few cases | |
 JUST | 7 | 57% | +11.8% | +0.6% | +11.2% | 0.7% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 6 | 67% | +3.9% | −0.5% | +4.4% | 47% | Too few cases | |
 ApeCoin | 9 | 78% | +3.2% | −1.7% | +4.9% | 28% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 9 | 56% | +10.1% | −1.9% | +12.0% | 3.4% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 5 | 60% | +10.6% | −1.6% | +12.2% | 2.4% | Too few cases | |
 DeXe | 9 | 44% | −3.4% | −0.3% | −3.2% | 40% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 7 | 86% | +3.7% | −2.0% | +5.6% | 28% | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 3 | 100% | +18.0% | −2.2% | +20.2% | 0.9% | Too few cases | |
 Basic Attention Token | 9 | 89% | +15.1% | −0.1% | +15.3% | 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 6 | 83% | +3.0% | −2.5% | +5.5% | 34% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 2 | 0% | −6.2% | −0.3% | −5.9% | 20% | Too few cases | |
 Prom | 8 | 38% | −5.5% | −0.2% | −5.3% | 13% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 9 | 67% | +9.0% | −1.9% | +10.9% | 3.7% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 9 | 67% | +1.6% | −0.9% | +2.5% | 47% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 8 | 63% | +2.1% | −3.4% | +5.5% | 25% | Too few cases | |
 Request | 5 | 80% | +4.7% | −0.5% | +5.2% | 20% | Too few cases | |
 1inch | 9 | 89% | +6.7% | −1.3% | +8.0% | 6.3% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 5 | 40% | −4.1% | −1.6% | −2.5% | 63% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.