AVA (Travala) signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily AVA candle since 24 Nov 2020 (2,182 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 13 signals did no better than picking days at random.
AVA price · last close$0.217114 Nov 2026 close: $0.2171 (7d −18.8%)
RSI (14)36between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.24×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume49.0%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−97%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 20 | 70% | +4.6% | −0.4% | 45% | 45 | Weak evidence | 13 Jul 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 18 | 72% | +3.8% | −0.4% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence | 30 Jun 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 27 | 44% | −2.3% | −0.4% | 82% | 42 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 24 | 46% | −1.2% | −0.4% | 94% | 39 | Weak evidence | 16 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 41 | 49% | −2.4% | −0.4% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 48 | 40% | −2.2% | −0.4% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 48 | 46% | −1.8% | −0.4% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance | 14 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 61 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.4% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance | 3 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 57 | 37% | −1.1% | −0.4% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 2 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 31 | 58% | +2.2% | −0.4% | 70% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 31 | 52% | +1.7% | −0.4% | 78% | 20 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 29 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.4% | 90% | 17 | No better than chance | 21 May 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 19 | 58% | +1.8% | −0.4% | 81% | 14 | No better than chance | 30 Jul 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 26 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.4% | 100% | 13 | No better than chance | 3 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 23 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 19 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 98% | 10 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 12 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| Golden cross | 6 | 17% | −12.7% | −0.4% | 2.0% | Too few cases | 3 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 6 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.4% | 94% | Too few cases | 6 Mar 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% rise in 7 days | 22 | 32% | −9.1% | −0.4% | 8.4% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans down | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 10 | 90% | +11.6% | −0.4% | 12% | 55 | Some evidence · leans up | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 40 | 33% | −5.0% | −0.4% | 28% | 55 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 28 | 36% | −6.2% | −0.4% | 25% | 51 | Weak evidence | 23 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 86 | 52% | +1.4% | −0.4% | 63% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 85 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.4% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 41 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.4% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence | 11 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 13 | 69% | +3.9% | −0.4% | 66% | 41 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 17 | 35% | −3.0% | −0.4% | 80% | 39 | Weak evidence | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 33 | 67% | +4.3% | −0.4% | 33% | 26 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 57 | 54% | +1.3% | −0.4% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 10 | 60% | +2.8% | −0.4% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 3 Jan 2025 |
| 5% drop in a day | 129 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 37 | 46% | −1.4% | −0.4% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 86 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 86 | 45% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 133 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 20 | 60% | +3.5% | −0.4% | 61% | 18 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 18 | 50% | +0.5% | −0.4% | 94% | 11 | No better than chance | 23 Feb 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 3 | 33% | −1.0% | −0.4% | 93% | Too few cases | 2 Feb 2025 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 6 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.4% | 90% | Too few cases | 17 Oct 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 72 | 56% | +2.6% | −0.4% | 37% | 26 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 61 | 46% | −2.1% | −0.4% | 73% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 64% | +3.0% | −0.4% | 78% | 13 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 12 | 42% | −3.0% | −0.4% | 82% | 11 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.2669 | −11.8% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.2779 | −15.1% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.3349 | −20.3% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.3349 | −20.3% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.3424 | −12.6% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.4311 | −22.3% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | $0.3198 | +25.7% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.3198 | +25.7% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $0.3198 | +25.7% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Breakout to a 90-day high | $0.3785 | +13.4% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | RSI rises above 70 | $0.3785 | +13.4% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Five green days in a row | $0.2944 | +46.4% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.