What happens to Fetch.ai after a 30% drop in 7 days?

Since 2019, Fetch.ai has shown a 30% drop in 7 days 27 times. In the 26 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 65% of the time, with a median move of +7.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for FET is −1.2%.

Some evidence · leans up57

Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 22% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is upward.

Cases since 201927last on 5 Feb 2026

Higher after 7 days65%ordinary: 47%

Median 7-day move+7.6%ordinary: −1.2%

Could be luck22%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−22% / +45%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary FET drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 27 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	26	81%	+5.1%	+1.6% to +8.8%	−0.3%	+5.4%	0.4%	93
3 days	26	58%	+4.0%	−3.4% to +11.8%	−0.4%	+4.5%	25%	49
7 days	26	65%	+7.6%	−2.5% to +17.8%	−1.2%	+8.8%	22%	57
14 days	26	65%	+13.4%	−1.8% to +25.1%	−2.0%	+15.3%	16%	70
30 days	26	50%	−0.5%	−11.1% to +15.7%	−4.5%	+4.0%	94%	15

“Ordinary median” is the median move of FET over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 1.3%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−8.9%ordinary FET: −10.3%

1 case in 4 dipped past−18.4%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way46%ordinary: 51%

Typical best point+18.7%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+7.3%ordinary: −1.5%

Ahead after costs65%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 15 the gap over 7 days was +10.6%, and in the later 11 it was +1.9%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
5 Feb 2026	$0.1481	+14.2%	+7.7%	−3.4%
10 Oct 2025	$0.3460	+5.8%	−22.4%	+0.9%
2 Feb 2025	$0.8230	+4.9%	−6.6%	−28.8%
22 Dec 2024	$1.26	+9.4%	+3.3%	+4.1%
5 Aug 2024	$0.7900	+7.3%	+9.2%	+44.4%
11 Jun 2023	$0.1830	+1.2%	0.0%	+16.8%
9 Mar 2023	$0.3197	+4.5%	+31.8%	+6.1%
12 Nov 2022	$0.06170	−2.6%	−2.9%	+54.3%
16 Jun 2022	$0.08280	−3.4%	−1.1%	−1.9%
11 May 2022	$0.1330	+6.8%	+26.2%	+8.3%
12 Apr 2022	$0.3458	+1.6%	+0.7%	−58.9%
22 Jan 2022	$0.3351	+6.1%	−5.7%	−17.7%

The 12 most recent. All 27 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 30% below the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Harmony	23	70%	+11.6%	+12.9%	Strong evidence · leans up
Tellor	22	77%	+9.1%	+9.5%	Some evidence · leans up
Reserve Rights	21	71%	+5.9%	+7.2%	Weak evidence
Curve DAO	22	68%	+5.3%	+5.9%	Weak evidence

30% drop in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Fetch.ai signals

100% rise in 30 daysStrong evidence · 33 cases 50% rise in 30 daysStrong evidence · 78 cases Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 32 cases 15% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 54 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 55 cases 30% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 60 cases

Full Fetch.ai record

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