What happens to Harmony after a 30% drop in 7 days?

Since 2019, Harmony has shown a 30% drop in 7 days 23 times. In the 23 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 70% of the time, with a median move of +11.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ONE is −1.3%.

Strong evidence · leans up90

Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 5.8% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is upward.

Cases since 201923last on 26 Sep 2026

Higher after 7 days70%ordinary: 45%

Median 7-day move+11.6%ordinary: −1.3%

Could be luck5.8%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−15% / +38%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary ONE drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 23 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	23	61%	+1.8%	−1.6% to +4.0%	−0.2%	+2.1%	26%	46
3 days	23	61%	+5.2%	−4.6% to +12.8%	−0.6%	+5.8%	13%	75
7 days	23	70%	+11.6%	−1.6% to +14.2%	−1.3%	+12.9%	5.8%	90
14 days	23	65%	+8.0%	−6.2% to +20.3%	−3.5%	+11.4%	34%	49
30 days	23	39%	−6.8%	−19.3% to +12.0%	−7.0%	+0.2%	99%	12

“Ordinary median” is the median move of ONE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.1%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−11.9%ordinary ONE: −9.8%

1 case in 4 dipped past−18.6%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way57%ordinary: 49%

Typical best point+21.5%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+11.3%ordinary: −1.6%

Ahead after costs70%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 13 the gap over 7 days was +8.3%, and in the later 10 it was +12.9%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
26 Sep 2026	$0.00229	+9.6%	+12.9%	−43.1%
13 Aug 2026	$0.00075000	+4.0%	+0.7%	−9.5%
10 Oct 2025	$0.00594	+3.4%	+11.6%	−2.0%
6 Feb 2025	$0.01355	+2.0%	+18.4%	−6.8%
5 Aug 2024	$0.01000	+4.9%	+11.6%	+11.3%
15 Apr 2024	$0.01997	−0.4%	+12.5%	+1.1%
12 Nov 2022	$0.01446	−4.6%	−2.1%	−3.3%
19 Aug 2022	$0.02230	−1.0%	−10.8%	−15.9%
1 Jul 2022	$0.01715	+0.9%	+12.2%	+32.1%
13 Jun 2022	$0.02767	−1.6%	−3.3%	−22.6%
11 May 2022	$0.04101	−1.6%	+5.3%	−11.8%
30 Apr 2022	$0.07445	+13.4%	−1.1%	−37.2%

The 12 most recent. All 23 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 30% below the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	22	77%	+9.1%	+9.5%	Some evidence · leans up
Fetch.ai	26	65%	+7.6%	+8.8%	Some evidence · leans up
Reserve Rights	21	71%	+5.9%	+7.2%	Weak evidence
Curve DAO	22	68%	+5.3%	+5.9%	Weak evidence

30% drop in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Harmony signals

Volume spike on a red dayStrong evidence · 25 cases Breakout to a 90-day highSome evidence · 23 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 48 cases 20% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 34 cases Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in controlWeak evidence · 44 cases Five red days in a rowWeak evidence · 43 cases

Full Harmony record

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